VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #146 Competition C118 Portfolio Engine v5.3 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260725

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-07-23 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-8.0956%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Weak

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.796

Optimizer

0.796

Portfolio Quality

0.892

Portfolio Risk

0.640

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

Not recorded

Memory Adjustment

Not recorded

Expected Alpha

0.796120

Correlation Score

0.202200

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.796120

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.3

Engine Build

2026.07.22

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-07-23 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG AAVE Decision #1

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.685

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.685107

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.685107

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.685107

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 85

Final Confidence Index: 85

Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.584707	0.584707	0.169685478
Trend	0.199454	0.570494	0.570494	0.110373853
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.865857	0.865857	0.066980369
Risk Control	0.079750	0.886427	0.886427	0.068571609
Rank	0.059836	0.647059	0.647059	0.037556080
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.600943	0.600943	0.034879452
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.623750	0.623750	0.048270931

Factor Total: 0.674455826

Macro Contribution: 0.010650720

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.685107

Historical Raw Score: 0.685107

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 58%

Trend 57%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 87%

Risk Control 89%

Relative Strength 60%

Trend Acceleration 62%

Sector Rotation 60%

Sector Strength 49%

Supply Quality 96%

Mean Reversion Risk 32%

Momentum Exhaustion 36%

LONG PAXG Decision #2

Sector: Not recorded · Pump risk: Not recorded · Crash risk: Not recorded

Decision Score

Not recorded

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

Not recorded

Exhaustion Penalty

Not recorded

After Exhaustion

Not recorded

Crash Guard Penalty

Not recorded

Final Selection Score

Not recorded

LONG Candidate Blocked

Not recorded

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: Not recorded

Confidence Cap: Not recorded

Final Confidence Index: Not recorded

Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence

Not recorded for this engine generation.

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum —

Trend —

Liquidity —

Market Quality —

Risk Control —

Relative Strength —

Trend Acceleration —

Sector Rotation —

Sector Strength —

Supply Quality —

Mean Reversion Risk —

Momentum Exhaustion —

SHORT DEXE Decision #3

Sector: Not recorded · Pump risk: Not recorded · Crash risk: Not recorded

Decision Score

Not recorded

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

Not recorded

Rebound Penalty

Not recorded

After Rebound

Not recorded

Final Selection Score

Not recorded

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: Not recorded

Confidence Cap: Not recorded

Final Confidence Index: Not recorded

Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence

Not recorded for this engine generation.

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum —

Trend —

Liquidity —

Market Quality —

Risk Control —

Relative Strength —

Trend Acceleration —

Sector Rotation —

Sector Strength —

Supply Quality —

Mean Reversion Risk —

Momentum Exhaustion —

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.523	0.321 – 0.713	1.0000	3
Depth	0.540	0.182 – 0.886	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.539	0.336 – 0.729	1.0000	3
Extension	0.032	0.000 – 0.096	1.0000	3
Liquidity	1.000	1.000 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.688	0.688 – 0.688	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.182	0.182 – 0.182	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.616	0.372 – 0.866	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.390	0.288 – 0.556	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.632	0.312 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.416	0.207 – 0.679	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.300	0.200 – 0.500	1.0000	3
Rank	0.272	0.067 – 0.647	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.641	0.342 – 0.981	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.640	0.298 – 0.886	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.421	0.320 – 0.595	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.386	0.306 – 0.492	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.732	0.241 – 0.990	1.0200	3
Trend	0.555	0.296 – 0.798	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.703	0.486 – 1.000	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

No attribution record available for this engine generation.

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.