VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #152 Competition C123 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W33

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-07-27 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
2.7234%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.818
Optimizer
0.818
Portfolio Quality
0.929
Portfolio Risk
0.762
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.817594
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.817594
Correlation Score
0.319433
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.817594

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-07-27 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG AAVE Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.721
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.723973
Exhaustion Penalty
0.002881
After Exhaustion
0.721092
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.721092
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.624081 0.624081 0.109578180
Trend 0.221239 0.629385 0.629385 0.135067135
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.156074014
Market Quality 0.147828 0.866125 0.866125 0.124196263
Risk Control 0.128117 0.846033 0.846033 0.105139849
Rank 0.060338 0.647059 0.647059 0.037870911
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.639850 0.639850 0.037448984
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.202500 0.202500 0.007901247
Factor Total: 0.713276584
Macro Contribution: 0.010696410
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.723973
Historical Raw Score: 0.723973

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 62%
Trend 63%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 87%
Risk Control 85%
Relative Strength 64%
Trend Acceleration 20%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 36%
Momentum Exhaustion 45%
LONG LTC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.615
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.621474
Exhaustion Penalty
0.006804
After Exhaustion
0.614670
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.614670
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 95
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.533243 0.533243 0.093628548
Trend 0.221239 0.520673 0.520673 0.111737347
Liquidity 0.160901 0.620228 0.620228 0.096801474
Market Quality 0.147828 0.837865 0.837865 0.120143977
Risk Control 0.128117 0.866369 0.866369 0.107667084
Rank 0.060338 0.815126 0.815126 0.047707495
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.565407 0.565407 0.033092003
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.610777927
Macro Contribution: 0.010696410
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.621474
Historical Raw Score: 0.621474

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 53%
Trend 52%
Liquidity 62%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 87%
Relative Strength 57%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 31%
Sector Strength 32%
Supply Quality 92%
Mean Reversion Risk 38%
Momentum Exhaustion 42%
SHORT DEXE Decision #3
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Extreme
Decision Score
0.800
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.799855
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.799855
Final Selection Score
0.799855
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.181014 0.000000 1.000000 0.181013677
Trend (inverted) 0.221239 0.000000 1.000000 0.221238938
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.160901046
Market Quality 0.147828 0.557237 0.557237 0.082375140
Risk Control 0.128117 0.573686 0.573686 0.073499192
Rank 0.060338 0.168067 0.168067 0.010140809
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.060338 0.000000 1.000000 0.060337892
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.040225 0.742750 0.257250 0.010347949
Factor Total: 0.799854641
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.799855
Historical Raw Score: 0.799855

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Extreme crash risk
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
Momentum 0%
Trend 0%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 56%
Risk Control 57%
Relative Strength 0%
Trend Acceleration 74%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 87%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 13%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.383 0.000 – 0.645 1.0000 3
Depth 0.674 0.133 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.357 0.000 – 0.606 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.873 0.620 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.682 0.682 – 0.682 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.198 0.198 – 0.198 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.754 0.557 – 0.866 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.344 0.293 – 0.378 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.386 0.000 – 0.624 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.331 0.125 – 0.446 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.543 0.168 – 0.815 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.402 0.000 – 0.640 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.762 0.574 – 0.866 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.499 0.306 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.436 0.322 – 0.492 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.918 0.868 – 0.964 1.0000 3
Trend 0.383 0.000 – 0.629 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.315 0.000 – 0.743 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.