VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #147 Competition C119 Portfolio Engine v5.3 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260726

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-07-24 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
0.1221%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.793
Optimizer
0.793
Portfolio Quality
0.947
Portfolio Risk
0.824
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
Not recorded
Memory Adjustment
Not recorded
Expected Alpha
0.793186
Correlation Score
0.531700
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.793186

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.3
Engine Build
2026.07.22
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-07-24 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG INJ Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.684
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.689552
Exhaustion Penalty
0.005783
After Exhaustion
0.683769
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.683769
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.586181 0.586181 0.170113241
Trend 0.199454 0.597535 0.597535 0.115605493
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.686226 0.686226 0.053084598
Risk Control 0.079750 0.909090 0.909090 0.070324757
Rank 0.059836 0.361345 0.361345 0.020972897
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.573286 0.573286 0.033274207
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.678901514
Macro Contribution: 0.010650720
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.689552
Historical Raw Score: 0.689552

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 59%
Trend 60%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 69%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 57%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 31%
Sector Strength 32%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 35%
LONG LDO Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.655
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.669866
Exhaustion Penalty
0.014642
After Exhaustion
0.655224
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.655224
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.633753 0.633753 0.183918921
Trend 0.199454 0.612924 0.612924 0.118582813
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.623280 0.623280 0.048215264
Risk Control 0.079750 0.846907 0.846907 0.065514448
Rank 0.059836 0.210084 0.210084 0.012193527
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.661657 0.661657 0.038403366
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.701000 0.701000 0.054249174
Factor Total: 0.659215568
Macro Contribution: 0.010650720
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.669866
Historical Raw Score: 0.669866

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 63%
Trend 61%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 62%
Risk Control 85%
Relative Strength 66%
Trend Acceleration 70%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 84%
Mean Reversion Risk 40%
Momentum Exhaustion 42%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.657
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.657341
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.657341
Final Selection Score
0.657341
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.280370 0.719630 0.215299939
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.265537 0.734463 0.146491798
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.607992 0.607992 0.048487243
Risk Control 0.079750 0.717235 0.717235 0.057199351
Rank 0.059836 0.092437 0.092437 0.005531087
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.301743 0.698257 0.041781107
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.998250 0.001750 0.000139618
Factor Total: 0.657340509
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.657341
Historical Raw Score: 0.657341

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 28%
Trend 27%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 72%
Relative Strength 30%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 32%
Sector Strength 31%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 19%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.454 0.264 – 0.553 1.0000 3
Depth 0.455 0.389 – 0.552 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.467 0.277 – 0.566 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.688 0.688 – 0.688 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.182 0.182 – 0.182 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.639 0.608 – 0.686 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.349 0.280 – 0.399 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.500 0.280 – 0.634 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.322 0.190 – 0.425 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.221 0.092 – 0.361 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.512 0.302 – 0.662 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.824 0.717 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.407 0.306 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.373 0.306 – 0.492 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.942 0.836 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.492 0.266 – 0.613 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.900 0.701 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
INJ · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Sector Strength
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.7673%
Attribution Confidence: 62%
LDO · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +2.7831%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
BONK · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Sector Strength
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.6494%
Attribution Confidence: 62%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.