VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #252 Competition C223 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261022

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-20 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-23 00:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-3.1382%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.819

Optimizer

0.819

Portfolio Quality

0.894

Portfolio Risk

0.645

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.814678

Memory Adjustment

0.004667

Expected Alpha

0.819344

Correlation Score

0.298600

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.819344

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-20 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG NEAR Decision #1

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.742

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.751175

Exhaustion Penalty

0.009215

After Exhaustion

0.741959

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.741959

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 85

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.801751	0.801751	0.232672948
Trend	0.199454	0.707499	0.707499	0.136880301
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.853785	0.853785	0.066046511
Risk Control	0.079750	0.827904	0.827904	0.064044427
Rank	0.059836	0.873950	0.873950	0.050725106
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.583493	0.583493	0.033866633
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.225750	0.225750	0.017470401

Factor Total: 0.739844382

Macro Contribution: 0.011330010

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.751174

Historical Raw Score: 0.751175

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 80%

Trend 71%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 85%

Risk Control 83%

Relative Strength 58%

Trend Acceleration 23%

Sector Rotation 45%

Sector Strength 40%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 38%

Momentum Exhaustion 53%

LONG ZRO Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.722

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.730989

Exhaustion Penalty

0.008934

After Exhaustion

0.722056

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.722056

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 85

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.819091	0.819091	0.237705120
Trend	0.199454	0.714935	0.714935	0.138318949
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.534022	0.534022	0.041310506
Risk Control	0.079750	0.573129	0.573129	0.044335718
Rank	0.059836	0.394958	0.394958	0.022923836
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.684636	0.684636	0.039737095
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.739000	0.739000	0.057189928

Factor Total: 0.719659206

Macro Contribution: 0.011330010

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.730989

Historical Raw Score: 0.730989

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 82%

Trend 71%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 53%

Risk Control 57%

Relative Strength 68%

Trend Acceleration 74%

Sector Rotation 47%

Sector Strength 40%

Supply Quality 40%

Mean Reversion Risk 38%

Momentum Exhaustion 49%

SHORT TRUMP Decision #3

Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.626

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.626342

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.626342

Final Selection Score

0.626342

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 85

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.299181	0.433403	0.566597	0.169515306
Trend (inverted)	0.199454	0.447228	0.552772	0.110252748
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.142410365
Market Quality	0.079750	0.502179	0.502179	0.040048677
Risk Control	0.079750	0.534608	0.534608	0.042634884
Rank	0.059836	0.252101	0.252101	0.015084788
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.059836	0.401893	0.598107	0.035788503
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.079782	0.115000	0.885000	0.070606820

Factor Total: 0.626342091

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.626342

Historical Raw Score: 0.626342

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Risk sector tags

Momentum 43%

Trend 45%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 50%

Risk Control 53%

Relative Strength 40%

Trend Acceleration 12%

Sector Rotation 39%

Sector Strength 41%

Supply Quality 28%

Mean Reversion Risk 31%

Momentum Exhaustion 39%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.417	0.417 – 0.417	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.424	0.402 – 0.467	1.0000	3
Depth	0.416	0.293 – 0.496	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.448	0.426 – 0.491	1.0000	3
Extension	0.005	0.000 – 0.014	1.0000	3
Liquidity	1.000	1.000 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.723	0.723 – 0.723	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.209	0.209 – 0.209	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.630	0.502 – 0.854	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.358	0.315 – 0.381	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.685	0.433 – 0.819	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.472	0.394 – 0.531	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.507	0.252 – 0.874	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.557	0.402 – 0.685	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.645	0.535 – 0.828	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.435	0.391 – 0.467	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.402	0.397 – 0.407	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.561	0.282 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.623	0.447 – 0.715	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.360	0.115 – 0.739	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

NEAR · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -6.8120%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

ZRO · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Sector Strength

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -8.5780%

Attribution Confidence: 62%

TRUMP · SHORT WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +5.9755%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.