VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #251 Competition C222 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 OPEN
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W45

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-19 00:05:03
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.835
Optimizer
0.835
Portfolio Quality
0.935
Portfolio Risk
0.783
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.830651
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.834651
Correlation Score
0.279267
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.834651

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-19 00:05:03
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG BAT Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.746
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.766878
Exhaustion Penalty
0.021341
After Exhaustion
0.745537
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.745537
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 83

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 1.000000 1.000000 0.175583266
Trend 0.221239 0.768802 0.768802 0.164986270
Liquidity 0.160901 0.938833 0.938833 0.146527435
Market Quality 0.147828 0.578207 0.578207 0.082910837
Risk Control 0.128117 0.725270 0.725270 0.090132156
Rank 0.060338 0.050420 0.050420 0.002950969
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.912900 0.912900 0.053429988
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 1.000000 1.000000 0.039018504
Factor Total: 0.755539425
Macro Contribution: 0.011338560
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.766878
Historical Raw Score: 0.766878

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 77%
Liquidity 94%
Market Quality 58%
Risk Control 73%
Relative Strength 91%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 38%
Sector Strength 28%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 57%
LONG UNI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.683
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.683017
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.683017
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.683017
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 83

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.574917 0.574917 0.100945805
Trend 0.221239 0.647692 0.647692 0.138995850
Liquidity 0.160901 0.716935 0.716935 0.111894924
Market Quality 0.147828 0.831943 0.831943 0.119294803
Risk Control 0.128117 0.815084 0.815084 0.101293695
Rank 0.060338 0.823529 0.823529 0.048199304
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.411307 0.411307 0.024072876
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.691500 0.691500 0.026981295
Factor Total: 0.671678551
Macro Contribution: 0.011338560
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.683017
Historical Raw Score: 0.683017

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 57%
Trend 65%
Liquidity 72%
Market Quality 83%
Risk Control 82%
Relative Strength 41%
Trend Acceleration 69%
Sector Rotation 38%
Sector Strength 28%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 30%
SHORT POL Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.626
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.625665
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.625665
Final Selection Score
0.625665
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 83

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.181014 0.439070 0.560930 0.101536002
Trend (inverted) 0.221239 0.456389 0.543611 0.120267920
Liquidity 0.160901 0.826449 0.826449 0.132976508
Market Quality 0.147828 0.648974 0.648974 0.095936422
Risk Control 0.128117 0.809961 0.809961 0.103770144
Rank 0.060338 0.470588 0.470588 0.028394288
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.060338 0.390757 0.609243 0.036760438
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.040225 0.850250 0.149750 0.006023733
Factor Total: 0.625665456
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.625665
Historical Raw Score: 0.625665

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 44%
Trend 46%
Liquidity 83%
Market Quality 65%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 39%
Trend Acceleration 85%
Sector Rotation 38%
Sector Strength 29%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 29%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.309 0.309 – 0.309 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.493 0.377 – 0.672 1.0000 3
Depth 0.618 0.394 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.531 0.415 – 0.710 1.0000 3
Extension 0.033 0.000 – 0.100 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.827 0.717 – 0.939 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.724 0.724 – 0.724 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.209 0.209 – 0.209 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.686 0.578 – 0.832 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.337 0.267 – 0.439 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.671 0.439 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.385 0.286 – 0.568 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.448 0.050 – 0.824 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.572 0.391 – 0.913 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.783 0.725 – 0.815 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.382 0.379 – 0.384 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.286 0.283 – 0.292 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.900 0.704 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.624 0.456 – 0.769 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.847 0.692 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.