VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #253 Competition C224 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261023

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-21 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-24 00:20:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-1.2346%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.827

Optimizer

0.827

Portfolio Quality

0.917

Portfolio Risk

0.722

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.822908

Memory Adjustment

0.004000

Expected Alpha

0.826908

Correlation Score

0.242333

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.826908

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-21 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG BAT Decision #1

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.715

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.753531

Exhaustion Penalty

0.039028

After Exhaustion

0.714502

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.714502

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 86

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	1.000000	1.000000	0.290205996
Trend	0.199454	0.719995	0.719995	0.139297911
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.596020	0.596020	0.046106504
Risk Control	0.079750	0.642232	0.642232	0.049681340
Rank	0.059836	0.058824	0.058824	0.003414216
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.904550	0.904550	0.052501167
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.295250	0.295250	0.022848885

Factor Total: 0.742194074

Macro Contribution: 0.011336580

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.753531

Historical Raw Score: 0.753531

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 100%

Trend 72%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 60%

Risk Control 64%

Relative Strength 90%

Trend Acceleration 30%

Sector Rotation 52%

Sector Strength 44%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 48%

Momentum Exhaustion 68%

LONG CRV Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.708

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.707900

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.707900

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.707900

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 86

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.668056	0.668056	0.193873857
Trend	0.199454	0.697053	0.697053	0.134859307
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.656890	0.656890	0.050815244
Risk Control	0.079750	0.717750	0.717750	0.055523210
Rank	0.059836	0.319328	0.319328	0.018534180
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.644621	0.644621	0.037414576
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.871000	0.871000	0.067405179

Factor Total: 0.696563607

Macro Contribution: 0.011336580

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.707900

Historical Raw Score: 0.707900

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 67%

Trend 70%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 66%

Risk Control 72%

Relative Strength 64%

Trend Acceleration 87%

Sector Rotation 52%

Sector Strength 44%

Supply Quality 52%

Mean Reversion Risk 28%

Momentum Exhaustion 38%

SHORT POL Decision #3

Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.610

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.610207

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.610207

Final Selection Score

0.610207

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 97

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 86

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.299181	0.469619	0.530381	0.158680151
Trend (inverted)	0.199454	0.485584	0.514416	0.102602480
Liquidity	0.142410	0.800674	0.800674	0.114024277
Market Quality	0.079750	0.640119	0.640119	0.051049365
Risk Control	0.079750	0.805664	0.805664	0.064251547
Rank	0.059836	0.462185	0.462185	0.027655435
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.059836	0.444086	0.555914	0.033263830
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.079782	0.264500	0.735500	0.058679453

Factor Total: 0.610206537

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.610207

Historical Raw Score: 0.610207

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 47%

Trend 49%

Liquidity 80%

Market Quality 64%

Risk Control 81%

Relative Strength 44%

Trend Acceleration 26%

Sector Rotation 41%

Sector Strength 33%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 32%

Momentum Exhaustion 39%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.516	0.516 – 0.516	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.532	0.418 – 0.691	1.0000	3
Depth	0.506	0.394 – 0.665	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.553	0.439 – 0.712	1.0000	3
Extension	0.044	0.000 – 0.132	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.934	0.801 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.722	0.722 – 0.722	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.212	0.212 – 0.212	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.631	0.596 – 0.657	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.361	0.278 – 0.480	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.713	0.470 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.486	0.382 – 0.680	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.300	0.200 – 0.500	1.0000	3
Rank	0.280	0.059 – 0.462	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.664	0.444 – 0.905	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.722	0.642 – 0.806	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.484	0.414 – 0.520	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.407	0.333 – 0.444	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.839	0.521 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.634	0.486 – 0.720	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.477	0.265 – 0.871	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

BAT · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Pump Guard

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -2.0705%

Attribution Confidence: 70%

CRV · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -2.1948%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

POL · SHORT WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +0.5616%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.