VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #250 Competition C221 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

← Previous Report Latest Report Next Report → Browse Research Library Back to VADIE Profile

Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261021

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-19 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-22 00:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-2.3599%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Weak

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.832

Optimizer

0.832

Portfolio Quality

0.943

Portfolio Risk

0.809

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.831686

Memory Adjustment

0.000667

Expected Alpha

0.832353

Correlation Score

0.287200

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.832353

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-19 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG BAT Decision #1

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.787

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.814108

Exhaustion Penalty

0.026677

After Exhaustion

0.787431

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.787431

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 83

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	1.000000	1.000000	0.290205996
Trend	0.199454	0.768802	0.768802	0.148740634
Liquidity	0.142410	0.938833	0.938833	0.129688564
Market Quality	0.079750	0.578207	0.578207	0.044728538
Risk Control	0.079750	0.725270	0.725270	0.056104937
Rank	0.059836	0.050420	0.050420	0.002926437
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.912900	0.912900	0.052985811
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	1.000000	1.000000	0.077388266

Factor Total: 0.802769183

Macro Contribution: 0.011338560

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.814108

Historical Raw Score: 0.814108

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 100%

Trend 77%

Liquidity 94%

Market Quality 58%

Risk Control 73%

Relative Strength 91%

Trend Acceleration 100%

Sector Rotation 38%

Sector Strength 28%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 44%

Momentum Exhaustion 57%

LONG AAVE Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.664

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.664499

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.664499

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.664499

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 95

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 83

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.570777	0.570777	0.165642908
Trend	0.199454	0.611264	0.611264	0.118261652
Liquidity	0.142410	0.762322	0.762322	0.105305678
Market Quality	0.079750	0.825219	0.825219	0.063836722
Risk Control	0.079750	0.891646	0.891646	0.068975336
Rank	0.059836	0.689076	0.689076	0.039994797
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.469314	0.469314	0.027239547
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.825750	0.825750	0.063903360

Factor Total: 0.653160002

Macro Contribution: 0.011338560

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.664499

Historical Raw Score: 0.664499

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 57%

Trend 61%

Liquidity 76%

Market Quality 83%

Risk Control 89%

Relative Strength 47%

Trend Acceleration 83%

Sector Rotation 38%

Sector Strength 28%

Supply Quality 96%

Mean Reversion Risk 27%

Momentum Exhaustion 30%

SHORT POL Decision #3

Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.587

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.586850

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.586850

Final Selection Score

0.586850

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 83

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.299181	0.439070	0.560930	0.167819845
Trend (inverted)	0.199454	0.456389	0.543611	0.108425548
Liquidity	0.142410	0.826449	0.826449	0.117694904
Market Quality	0.079750	0.648974	0.648974	0.051755550
Risk Control	0.079750	0.809961	0.809961	0.064594231
Rank	0.059836	0.470588	0.470588	0.028158239
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.059836	0.390757	0.609243	0.036454840
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.079782	0.850250	0.149750	0.011947312

Factor Total: 0.586850468

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.586850

Historical Raw Score: 0.586850

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 44%

Trend 46%

Liquidity 83%

Market Quality 65%

Risk Control 81%

Relative Strength 39%

Trend Acceleration 85%

Sector Rotation 38%

Sector Strength 29%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 30%

Momentum Exhaustion 29%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.309	0.309 – 0.309	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.477	0.377 – 0.672	1.0000	3
Depth	0.590	0.394 – 0.916	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.515	0.415 – 0.710	1.0000	3
Extension	0.033	0.000 – 0.100	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.843	0.762 – 0.939	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.724	0.724 – 0.724	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.209	0.209 – 0.209	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.684	0.578 – 0.825	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.338	0.271 – 0.439	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.670	0.439 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.385	0.286 – 0.568	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.300	0.200 – 0.500	1.0000	3
Rank	0.403	0.050 – 0.689	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.591	0.391 – 0.913	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.809	0.725 – 0.892	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.382	0.379 – 0.384	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.286	0.283 – 0.292	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.987	0.965 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.612	0.456 – 0.769	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.892	0.826 – 1.000	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

BAT · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Pump Guard

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -7.3146%

Attribution Confidence: 70%

AAVE · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +0.1438%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

POL · SHORT WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +0.0910%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.