VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #249 Competition C220 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261020

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-18 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-21 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
0.8671%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.817
Optimizer
0.817
Portfolio Quality
0.904
Portfolio Risk
0.679
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.809384
Memory Adjustment
0.008000
Expected Alpha
0.817384
Correlation Score
0.294267
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.817384

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-18 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG ZRO Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.716
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.722011
Exhaustion Penalty
0.005631
After Exhaustion
0.716380
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.716380
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 82

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.789893 0.789893 0.229231685
Trend 0.199454 0.651091 0.651091 0.125967008
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.533728 0.533728 0.041287763
Risk Control 0.079750 0.508349 0.508349 0.039324511
Rank 0.059836 0.394958 0.394958 0.022923836
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.627564 0.627564 0.036424567
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.710685690
Macro Contribution: 0.011325240
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.722011
Historical Raw Score: 0.722011

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 79%
Trend 65%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 53%
Risk Control 51%
Relative Strength 63%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 45%
Sector Strength 35%
Supply Quality 40%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 43%
LONG NEAR Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.707
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.731068
Exhaustion Penalty
0.023919
After Exhaustion
0.707149
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.707149
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 82

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.813003 0.813003 0.235938346
Trend 0.199454 0.667305 0.667305 0.129103942
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.853785 0.853785 0.066046511
Risk Control 0.079750 0.702612 0.702612 0.054352175
Rank 0.059836 0.873950 0.873950 0.050725106
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.571207 0.571207 0.033153539
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.158750 0.158750 0.012285387
Factor Total: 0.719743060
Macro Contribution: 0.011325240
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.731068
Historical Raw Score: 0.731068

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 81%
Trend 67%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 57%
Trend Acceleration 16%
Sector Rotation 43%
Sector Strength 33%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 54%
SHORT DOGE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.577
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.577315
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.577315
Final Selection Score
0.577315
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 82

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.469099 0.530901 0.158835725
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.478382 0.521618 0.104038949
Liquidity 0.142410 0.473436 0.473436 0.067422194
Market Quality 0.079750 0.843149 0.843149 0.067240968
Risk Control 0.079750 0.825524 0.825524 0.065835378
Rank 0.059836 0.915966 0.915966 0.054808005
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.435750 0.564250 0.033762625
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.682000 0.318000 0.025370586
Factor Total: 0.577314431
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.577314
Historical Raw Score: 0.577315

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 47%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 47%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 83%
Relative Strength 44%
Trend Acceleration 68%
Sector Rotation 35%
Sector Strength 33%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 28%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.312 0.312 – 0.312 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.427 0.415 – 0.438 1.0000 3
Depth 0.584 0.293 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.456 0.445 – 0.468 1.0000 3
Extension 0.008 0.000 – 0.024 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.824 0.473 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.722 0.722 – 0.722 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.211 0.211 – 0.211 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.744 0.534 – 0.854 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.359 0.280 – 0.430 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.691 0.469 – 0.813 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.418 0.276 – 0.545 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.728 0.395 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.545 0.436 – 0.628 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.679 0.508 – 0.826 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.410 0.348 – 0.448 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.335 0.328 – 0.347 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.800 0.400 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.599 0.478 – 0.667 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.614 0.159 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
ZRO · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +5.2294%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.0833%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
DOGE · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Breadth
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -2.7114%
Attribution Confidence: 64%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.