VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #248 Competition C219 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261019

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-17 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-20 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-1.0582%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.842
Optimizer
0.842
Portfolio Quality
0.919
Portfolio Risk
0.730
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.829737
Memory Adjustment
0.012000
Expected Alpha
0.841737
Correlation Score
0.294492
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.841737

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-17 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.790
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.816221
Exhaustion Penalty
0.026679
After Exhaustion
0.789542
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.789542
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 81

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.964754 0.964754 0.279977396
Trend 0.199454 0.714660 0.714660 0.138265745
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.853785 0.853785 0.066046511
Risk Control 0.079750 0.658675 0.658675 0.050953326
Rank 0.059836 0.873950 0.873950 0.050725106
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.759071 0.759071 0.044057391
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.475500 0.475500 0.036798120
Factor Total: 0.804961650
Macro Contribution: 0.011259270
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.816221
Historical Raw Score: 0.816221

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 96%
Trend 71%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 66%
Relative Strength 76%
Trend Acceleration 48%
Sector Rotation 54%
Sector Strength 44%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 59%
LONG ENA Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.731
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.731443
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000808
After Exhaustion
0.730634
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.730634
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 81

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.734909 0.734909 0.213274999
Trend 0.199454 0.685818 0.685818 0.132685664
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.713950 0.713950 0.055229252
Risk Control 0.079750 0.704162 0.704162 0.054472078
Rank 0.059836 0.714286 0.714286 0.041458016
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.540857 0.540857 0.031391989
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.691750 0.691750 0.053533333
Factor Total: 0.720183385
Macro Contribution: 0.011259270
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.731443
Historical Raw Score: 0.731443

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 73%
Trend 69%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 71%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 54%
Trend Acceleration 69%
Sector Rotation 54%
Sector Strength 43%
Supply Quality 89%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 44%
SHORT POL Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.600
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.600083
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.600083
Final Selection Score
0.600083
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 81

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.493046 0.506954 0.151671228
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.505579 0.494421 0.098614391
Liquidity 0.142410 0.912700 0.912700 0.129977940
Market Quality 0.079750 0.667906 0.667906 0.053265373
Risk Control 0.079750 0.826734 0.826734 0.065931875
Rank 0.059836 0.462185 0.462185 0.027655435
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.456886 0.543114 0.032497926
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.492750 0.507250 0.040469276
Factor Total: 0.600083443
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.600083
Historical Raw Score: 0.600083

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 51%
Liquidity 91%
Market Quality 67%
Risk Control 83%
Relative Strength 46%
Trend Acceleration 49%
Sector Rotation 53%
Sector Strength 43%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 37%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.428 0.428 – 0.428 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.471 0.421 – 0.553 1.0000 3
Depth 0.413 0.323 – 0.459 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.487 0.438 – 0.570 1.0000 3
Extension 0.017 0.000 – 0.052 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.971 0.913 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.716 0.716 – 0.716 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.213 0.213 – 0.213 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.745 0.668 – 0.854 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.369 0.315 – 0.439 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.731 0.493 – 0.965 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.466 0.370 – 0.587 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.683 0.462 – 0.874 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.586 0.457 – 0.759 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.730 0.659 – 0.827 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.535 0.530 – 0.539 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.432 0.426 – 0.439 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.965 0.894 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.635 0.506 – 0.715 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.553 0.476 – 0.692 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -2.1758%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
ENA · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.3955%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
POL · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.3944%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.