VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #247 Competition C218 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261018

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-16 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-19 00:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

0.8265%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Bull

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.840

Optimizer

0.840

Portfolio Quality

0.936

Portfolio Risk

0.787

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.836431

Memory Adjustment

0.004000

Expected Alpha

0.840431

Correlation Score

0.338983

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.840431

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-16 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG INJ Decision #1

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.790

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.802303

Exhaustion Penalty

0.012582

After Exhaustion

0.789721

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.789721

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 80

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	0.904951	0.904951	0.281341964
Trend	0.206040	0.874325	0.874325	0.174741807
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.704686	0.704686	0.052141324
Risk Control	0.070178	0.775385	0.775385	0.052782704
Rank	0.057233	0.411765	0.411765	0.022859717
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.866307	0.866307	0.048094260
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.364000	0.364000	0.026943967

Factor Total: 0.791034814

Macro Contribution: 0.011268210

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.802303

Historical Raw Score: 0.802303

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 90%

Trend 87%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 70%

Risk Control 78%

Relative Strength 87%

Trend Acceleration 36%

Sector Rotation 63%

Sector Strength 54%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 39%

Momentum Exhaustion 60%

LONG ENA Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.726

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.737387

Exhaustion Penalty

0.011500

After Exhaustion

0.725887

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.725887

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 97

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 80

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	0.828341	0.828341	0.257524534
Trend	0.206040	0.744712	0.744712	0.148837469
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.713895	0.713895	0.052822719
Risk Control	0.070178	0.684475	0.684475	0.046594196
Rank	0.057233	0.714286	0.714286	0.039654599
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.653957	0.653957	0.036305349
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.165500	0.165500	0.012250623

Factor Total: 0.726118559

Macro Contribution: 0.011268210

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.737387

Historical Raw Score: 0.737387

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 83%

Trend 74%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 71%

Risk Control 68%

Relative Strength 65%

Trend Acceleration 17%

Sector Rotation 61%

Sector Strength 51%

Supply Quality 89%

Mean Reversion Risk 39%

Momentum Exhaustion 57%

SHORT PAXG Decision #3

Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.628

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.627759

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.627759

Final Selection Score

0.627759

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 80

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.320507	0.497436	0.502564	0.161075353
Trend (inverted)	0.206040	0.499365	0.500635	0.103150990
Liquidity	0.136216	0.954034	0.954034	0.129954254
Market Quality	0.076281	0.732530	0.732530	0.055877902
Risk Control	0.070178	0.900620	0.900620	0.063203931
Rank	0.057233	0.621849	0.621849	0.035590544
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.057233	0.499657	0.500343	0.028636341
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.076311	0.341250	0.658750	0.050270020

Factor Total: 0.627759334

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.627759

Historical Raw Score: 0.627759

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 50%

Trend 50%

Liquidity 95%

Market Quality 73%

Risk Control 90%

Relative Strength 50%

Trend Acceleration 34%

Sector Rotation 55%

Sector Strength 50%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 33%

Momentum Exhaustion 42%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.582	0.582 – 0.582	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.596	0.478 – 0.814	1.0000	3
Depth	0.339	0.287 – 0.406	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.620	0.501 – 0.837	1.0000	3
Extension	0.001	0.000 – 0.003	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.985	0.954 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.716	0.716 – 0.716	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.214	0.214 – 0.214	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.717	0.705 – 0.733	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.369	0.327 – 0.392	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.744	0.497 – 0.905	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.531	0.419 – 0.600	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.583	0.412 – 0.714	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.673	0.500 – 0.866	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.787	0.684 – 0.901	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.597	0.554 – 0.631	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.515	0.496 – 0.536	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.964	0.894 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.706	0.499 – 0.874	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.290	0.166 – 0.364	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

INJ · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +2.5342%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

ENA · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +0.5272%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

PAXG · SHORT LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -0.5819%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.