VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #246 Competition C217 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261017

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-15 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-18 00:20:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-2.2057%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Weak

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.840

Optimizer

0.840

Portfolio Quality

0.936

Portfolio Risk

0.786

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.843022

Memory Adjustment

-0.002667

Expected Alpha

0.840355

Correlation Score

0.275492

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.840355

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-15 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG NEAR Decision #1

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.789

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.808906

Exhaustion Penalty

0.019467

After Exhaustion

0.789438

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.789438

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 80

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.912916	0.912916	0.264933697
Trend	0.199454	0.673960	0.673960	0.130391489
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.850997	0.850997	0.065830839
Risk Control	0.079750	0.683776	0.683776	0.052895072
Rank	0.059836	0.865546	0.865546	0.050237328
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.706171	0.706171	0.040987012
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.701250	0.701250	0.054268521

Factor Total: 0.797682013

Macro Contribution: 0.011223660

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.808906

Historical Raw Score: 0.808906

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 91%

Trend 67%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 85%

Risk Control 68%

Relative Strength 71%

Trend Acceleration 70%

Sector Rotation 50%

Sector Strength 43%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 41%

Momentum Exhaustion 53%

LONG UNI Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.724

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.724240

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.724240

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.724240

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 80

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.618463	0.618463	0.179481671
Trend	0.199454	0.662245	0.662245	0.128124980
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.900195	0.900195	0.069636664
Risk Control	0.079750	0.773353	0.773353	0.059824508
Rank	0.059836	0.815126	0.815126	0.047310891
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.440236	0.440236	0.025551825
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.839250	0.839250	0.064948102

Factor Total: 0.713016696

Macro Contribution: 0.011223660

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.724240

Historical Raw Score: 0.724240

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 62%

Trend 66%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 90%

Risk Control 77%

Relative Strength 44%

Trend Acceleration 84%

Sector Rotation 50%

Sector Strength 41%

Supply Quality 70%

Mean Reversion Risk 23%

Momentum Exhaustion 30%

SHORT PAXG Decision #3

Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.644

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.643686

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.643686

Final Selection Score

0.643686

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 80

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.299181	0.480033	0.519967	0.155564476
Trend (inverted)	0.199454	0.481097	0.518903	0.103497431
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.142410365
Market Quality	0.079750	0.741367	0.741367	0.059123873
Risk Control	0.079750	0.901678	0.901678	0.071908644
Rank	0.059836	0.613445	0.613445	0.036706272
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.059836	0.478357	0.521643	0.031213181
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.079782	0.457750	0.542250	0.043261636

Factor Total: 0.643685878

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.643686

Historical Raw Score: 0.643686

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 48%

Trend 48%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 74%

Risk Control 90%

Relative Strength 48%

Trend Acceleration 46%

Sector Rotation 48%

Sector Strength 46%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 35%

Momentum Exhaustion 39%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.348	0.348 – 0.348	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.447	0.406 – 0.525	1.0000	3
Depth	0.581	0.287 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.497	0.455 – 0.574	1.0000	3
Extension	0.018	0.000 – 0.055	1.0000	3
Liquidity	1.000	1.000 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.714	0.714 – 0.714	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.211	0.211 – 0.211	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.831	0.741 – 0.900	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.331	0.232 – 0.415	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.670	0.480 – 0.913	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.406	0.298 – 0.528	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.765	0.613 – 0.866	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.542	0.440 – 0.706	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.786	0.684 – 0.902	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.493	0.479 – 0.502	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.434	0.412 – 0.460	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.901	0.704 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.606	0.481 – 0.674	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.666	0.458 – 0.839	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

NEAR · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Breadth

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -4.1789%

Attribution Confidence: 64%

UNI · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Breadth

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -2.6611%

Attribution Confidence: 64%

PAXG · SHORT WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +0.2229%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.