VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #245 Competition C216 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261016

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-14 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-17 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-1.7095%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.837
Optimizer
0.837
Portfolio Quality
0.945
Portfolio Risk
0.815
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.843677
Memory Adjustment
-0.006667
Expected Alpha
0.837010
Correlation Score
0.244358
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.837010

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-14 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.806
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.833904
Exhaustion Penalty
0.027733
After Exhaustion
0.806170
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.806170
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 79

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 1.000000 1.000000 0.290205996
Trend 0.199454 0.725407 0.725407 0.140344974
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.850997 0.850997 0.065830839
Risk Control 0.079750 0.668750 0.668750 0.051732701
Rank 0.059836 0.865546 0.865546 0.050237328
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.841636 0.841636 0.048849563
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.481750 0.481750 0.037281797
Factor Total: 0.822621253
Macro Contribution: 0.011282310
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.833904
Historical Raw Score: 0.833904

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 73%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 67%
Relative Strength 84%
Trend Acceleration 48%
Sector Rotation 54%
Sector Strength 41%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 63%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.706
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.706485
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.706485
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.706485
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 95
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 79

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.642683 0.642683 0.186510460
Trend 0.199454 0.681446 0.681446 0.131839810
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.884503 0.884503 0.068422773
Risk Control 0.079750 0.868856 0.868856 0.067212363
Rank 0.059836 0.689076 0.689076 0.039994797
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.537221 0.537221 0.031180951
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.412250 0.412250 0.031903313
Factor Total: 0.695202522
Macro Contribution: 0.011282310
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.706485
Historical Raw Score: 0.706485

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 64%
Trend 68%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 88%
Risk Control 87%
Relative Strength 54%
Trend Acceleration 41%
Sector Rotation 54%
Sector Strength 41%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 26%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.594
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.594059
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.594059
Final Selection Score
0.594059
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 79

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.485314 0.514686 0.153984498
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.486873 0.513127 0.102345383
Liquidity 0.142410 0.706226 0.706226 0.100573903
Market Quality 0.079750 0.670311 0.670311 0.053457171
Risk Control 0.079750 0.908622 0.908622 0.072462427
Rank 0.059836 0.621849 0.621849 0.037209136
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.484186 0.515814 0.030864395
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.459000 0.541000 0.043161909
Factor Total: 0.594058822
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.594059
Historical Raw Score: 0.594059

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 71%
Market Quality 67%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 48%
Trend Acceleration 46%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 46%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 39%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.534 0.534 – 0.534 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.485 0.394 – 0.530 1.0000 3
Depth 0.553 0.286 – 0.915 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.543 0.453 – 0.589 1.0000 3
Extension 0.034 0.000 – 0.101 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.902 0.706 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.714 0.714 – 0.714 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.219 0.219 – 0.219 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.802 0.670 – 0.885 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.349 0.257 – 0.442 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.709 0.485 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.473 0.395 – 0.626 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.725 0.622 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.621 0.484 – 0.842 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.815 0.669 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.527 0.502 – 0.540 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.426 0.407 – 0.460 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.631 0.487 – 0.725 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.451 0.412 – 0.482 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -3.5787%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
AAVE · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.4747%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PAXG · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.0751%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.