VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #244 Competition C215 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261015

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-13 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-16 00:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

3.7446%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Weak

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.814

Optimizer

0.814

Portfolio Quality

0.923

Portfolio Risk

0.744

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.820408

Memory Adjustment

-0.006667

Expected Alpha

0.813741

Correlation Score

0.275000

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.813741

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-13 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG NEAR Decision #1

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.712

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.749874

Exhaustion Penalty

0.037713

After Exhaustion

0.712162

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.712162

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 78

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.926591	0.926591	0.268902264
Trend	0.199454	0.640069	0.640069	0.123834575
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.850331	0.850331	0.065779319
Risk Control	0.079750	0.587412	0.587412	0.045440612
Rank	0.059836	0.865546	0.865546	0.050237328
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.723350	0.723350	0.041984101
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.056000	0.056000	0.004333743

Factor Total: 0.738649997

Macro Contribution: 0.011224230

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.749874

Historical Raw Score: 0.749874

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 93%

Trend 64%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 85%

Risk Control 59%

Relative Strength 72%

Trend Acceleration 6%

Sector Rotation 45%

Sector Strength 36%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 48%

Momentum Exhaustion 64%

LONG AAVE Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.622

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.621693

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.621693

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.621693

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 96

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 78

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.555814	0.555814	0.161300556
Trend	0.199454	0.586549	0.586549	0.113480025
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.881582	0.881582	0.068196812
Risk Control	0.079750	0.829502	0.829502	0.064168044
Rank	0.059836	0.680672	0.680672	0.039507019
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.442407	0.442407	0.025677833
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000000

Factor Total: 0.610468343

Macro Contribution: 0.011224230

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.621693

Historical Raw Score: 0.621693

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 56%

Trend 59%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 88%

Risk Control 83%

Relative Strength 44%

Trend Acceleration 0%

Sector Rotation 48%

Sector Strength 39%

Supply Quality 96%

Mean Reversion Risk 30%

Momentum Exhaustion 41%

SHORT DOGE Decision #3

Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.674

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.673972

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.673972

Final Selection Score

0.673972

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 78

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.299181	0.435526	0.564474	0.168880144
Trend (inverted)	0.199454	0.446493	0.553507	0.110399347
Liquidity	0.142410	0.621082	0.621082	0.088448514
Market Quality	0.079750	0.880060	0.880060	0.070184613
Risk Control	0.079750	0.814150	0.814150	0.064928303
Rank	0.059836	0.915966	0.915966	0.054808005
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.059836	0.389314	0.610686	0.036541183
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.079782	0.000000	1.000000	0.079781717

Factor Total: 0.673971828

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.673972

Historical Raw Score: 0.673972

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Risk sector tags

Momentum 44%

Trend 45%

Liquidity 62%

Market Quality 88%

Risk Control 81%

Relative Strength 39%

Trend Acceleration 0%

Sector Rotation 25%

Sector Strength 20%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 30%

Momentum Exhaustion 36%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.330	0.330 – 0.330	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.434	0.373 – 0.543	1.0000	3
Depth	0.789	0.453 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.498	0.437 – 0.607	1.0000	3
Extension	0.029	0.000 – 0.086	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.874	0.621 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.712	0.712 – 0.712	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.216	0.216 – 0.216	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.871	0.850 – 0.882	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.357	0.295 – 0.476	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.639	0.436 – 0.927	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.471	0.359 – 0.640	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.821	0.681 – 0.916	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.518	0.389 – 0.723	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.744	0.587 – 0.830	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.394	0.252 – 0.481	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.318	0.203 – 0.387	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.988	0.965 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.558	0.446 – 0.640	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.019	0.000 – 0.056	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

NEAR · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +7.8037%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

AAVE · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +2.3460%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

DOGE · SHORT WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +1.0842%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.