VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #241 Competition C212 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261013

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-11 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-14 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
1.7662%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.819
Optimizer
0.819
Portfolio Quality
0.911
Portfolio Risk
0.703
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.818690
Memory Adjustment
0.000667
Expected Alpha
0.819357
Correlation Score
0.298983
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.819357

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-11 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG KAIA Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.767
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.802960
Exhaustion Penalty
0.036220
After Exhaustion
0.766740
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.766740
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 75

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.997170 0.997170 0.289384713
Trend 0.199454 0.861136 0.861136 0.166604554
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.509071 0.509071 0.039380363
Risk Control 0.079750 0.547635 0.547635 0.042363571
Rank 0.059836 0.142857 0.142857 0.008291592
Relative Strength 0.059836 1.000000 1.000000 0.058041199
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.641000 0.641000 0.049605878
Factor Total: 0.791809925
Macro Contribution: 0.011150520
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.802960
Historical Raw Score: 0.802960

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 86%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 51%
Risk Control 55%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 64%
Sector Rotation 61%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 47%
Momentum Exhaustion 67%
LONG ENA Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.726
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.733812
Exhaustion Penalty
0.007493
After Exhaustion
0.726320
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.726320
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 75

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.827364 0.827364 0.240105994
Trend 0.199454 0.714957 0.714957 0.138323206
Liquidity 0.142410 0.881080 0.881080 0.121710677
Market Quality 0.079750 0.686012 0.686012 0.053068043
Risk Control 0.079750 0.683416 0.683416 0.052867224
Rank 0.059836 0.722689 0.722689 0.041945736
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.632664 0.632664 0.036720577
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.490000 0.490000 0.037920250
Factor Total: 0.722661707
Macro Contribution: 0.011150520
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.733812
Historical Raw Score: 0.733812

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 83%
Trend 71%
Liquidity 88%
Market Quality 69%
Risk Control 68%
Relative Strength 63%
Trend Acceleration 49%
Sector Rotation 61%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 89%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 52%
SHORT ATOM Decision #3
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.565
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.564596
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.564596
Final Selection Score
0.564596
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 75

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.585790 0.414210 0.123923944
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.594205 0.405795 0.080937555
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.768801 0.768801 0.061311729
Risk Control 0.079750 0.878080 0.878080 0.070026708
Rank 0.059836 0.453782 0.453782 0.027152630
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.559429 0.440571 0.026362133
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.593000 0.407000 0.032471159
Factor Total: 0.564596225
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.564596
Historical Raw Score: 0.564596

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 59%
Trend 59%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 77%
Risk Control 88%
Relative Strength 56%
Trend Acceleration 59%
Sector Rotation 61%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.592 0.592 – 0.592 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.710 0.435 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.373 0.136 – 0.663 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.749 0.493 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.036 0.000 – 0.107 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.960 0.881 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.704 0.704 – 0.704 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.219 0.219 – 0.219 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.655 0.509 – 0.769 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.371 0.267 – 0.471 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.803 0.586 – 0.997 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.523 0.382 – 0.666 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.440 0.143 – 0.723 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.731 0.559 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.703 0.548 – 0.878 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.607 0.606 – 0.609 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.486 0.485 – 0.487 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.965 0.894 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.723 0.594 – 0.861 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.575 0.490 – 0.641 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
KAIA · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +5.0028%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
ENA · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +2.0874%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
ATOM · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.7914%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.