VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #242 Competition C213 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 COMPLETED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261014

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-12 00:20:02
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.826
Optimizer
0.826
Portfolio Quality
0.917
Portfolio Risk
0.722
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.828644
Memory Adjustment
-0.002667
Expected Alpha
0.825977
Correlation Score
0.252358
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.825977

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-12 00:20:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG FIL Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.805
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.805485
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.805485
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.805485
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 76

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.843591 0.843591 0.244815167
Trend 0.199454 0.839290 0.839290 0.162377994
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.644000 0.644000 0.049818108
Risk Control 0.079750 0.632415 0.632415 0.048921923
Rank 0.059836 0.445378 0.445378 0.025850273
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.810257 0.810257 0.047028288
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.794338073
Macro Contribution: 0.011146320
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.805484
Historical Raw Score: 0.805485

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 84%
Trend 84%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 64%
Risk Control 63%
Relative Strength 81%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 64%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 43%
Mean Reversion Risk 32%
Momentum Exhaustion 47%
LONG ENA Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.740
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.761093
Exhaustion Penalty
0.020808
After Exhaustion
0.740284
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.740284
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 76

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.944587 0.944587 0.274124812
Trend 0.199454 0.760222 0.760222 0.147080655
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.723360 0.723360 0.055957184
Risk Control 0.079750 0.624989 0.624989 0.048347468
Rank 0.059836 0.747899 0.747899 0.043408955
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.738943 0.738943 0.042889138
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.749946266
Macro Contribution: 0.011146320
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.761093
Historical Raw Score: 0.761093

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 94%
Trend 76%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 72%
Risk Control 62%
Relative Strength 74%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 62%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 89%
Mean Reversion Risk 42%
Momentum Exhaustion 65%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.544
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.544308
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.544308
Final Selection Score
0.544308
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 76

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.493599 0.506401 0.151505780
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.495670 0.504330 0.100590784
Liquidity 0.142410 0.499793 0.499793 0.071175704
Market Quality 0.079750 0.611007 0.611007 0.048727689
Risk Control 0.079750 0.908802 0.908802 0.072476782
Rank 0.059836 0.596639 0.596639 0.035700663
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.493236 0.506764 0.030322877
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.576250 0.423750 0.033807503
Factor Total: 0.544307780
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.544308
Historical Raw Score: 0.544308

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 50%
Liquidity 50%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 49%
Trend Acceleration 58%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 55%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.619 0.619 – 0.619 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.606 0.520 – 0.748 1.0000 3
Depth 0.363 0.285 – 0.482 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.653 0.567 – 0.795 1.0000 3
Extension 0.007 0.000 – 0.020 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.833 0.500 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.703 0.703 – 0.703 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.221 0.221 – 0.221 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.659 0.611 – 0.723 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.363 0.319 – 0.419 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.761 0.494 – 0.945 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.501 0.382 – 0.654 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.597 0.445 – 0.748 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.681 0.493 – 0.810 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.722 0.625 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.613 0.585 – 0.636 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.526 0.507 – 0.545 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.773 0.427 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.698 0.496 – 0.839 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.525 0.000 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.