VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #240 Competition C211 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261012

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-10 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-10-13 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-7.3941%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.841
Optimizer
0.841
Portfolio Quality
0.939
Portfolio Risk
0.796
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.843369
Memory Adjustment
-0.002667
Expected Alpha
0.840702
Correlation Score
0.246283
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.840702

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-10 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.773
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.806101
Exhaustion Penalty
0.033007
After Exhaustion
0.773094
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.773094
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 74

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 1.000000 1.000000 0.290205996
Trend 0.199454 0.793167 0.793167 0.153454546
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.850064 0.850064 0.065758665
Risk Control 0.079750 0.605005 0.605005 0.046801560
Rank 0.059836 0.865546 0.865546 0.050237328
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.867050 0.867050 0.050324622
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.794920771
Macro Contribution: 0.011180160
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.806101
Historical Raw Score: 0.806101

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 79%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 61%
Relative Strength 87%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 48%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 46%
Momentum Exhaustion 69%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.724
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.723935
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.723935
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.723935
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 74

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.664044 0.664044 0.192709551
Trend 0.199454 0.700094 0.700094 0.135447651
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.883965 0.883965 0.068381155
Risk Control 0.079750 0.880800 0.880800 0.068136319
Rank 0.059836 0.689076 0.689076 0.039994797
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.563129 0.563129 0.032684683
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.481500 0.481500 0.037262450
Factor Total: 0.712754660
Macro Contribution: 0.011180160
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.723935
Historical Raw Score: 0.723935

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 66%
Trend 70%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 88%
Risk Control 88%
Relative Strength 56%
Trend Acceleration 48%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 25%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.631
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.631262
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.631262
Final Selection Score
0.631262
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 74

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.494614 0.505386 0.151202111
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.496579 0.503421 0.100409480
Liquidity 0.142410 0.983133 0.983133 0.140008330
Market Quality 0.079750 0.739404 0.739404 0.058967324
Risk Control 0.079750 0.902214 0.902214 0.071951390
Rank 0.059836 0.621849 0.621849 0.037209136
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.496507 0.503493 0.030127152
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.481250 0.518750 0.041386766
Factor Total: 0.631261689
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.631262
Historical Raw Score: 0.631262

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 50%
Liquidity 98%
Market Quality 74%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 50%
Trend Acceleration 48%
Sector Rotation 54%
Sector Strength 50%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.595 0.595 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.524 0.445 – 0.588 1.0000 3
Depth 0.550 0.285 – 0.913 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.580 0.501 – 0.644 1.0000 3
Extension 0.020 0.000 – 0.060 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.994 0.983 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.707 0.707 – 0.707 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.218 0.218 – 0.218 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.824 0.739 – 0.884 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.340 0.249 – 0.460 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.720 0.495 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.496 0.397 – 0.693 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.725 0.622 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.642 0.497 – 0.867 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.796 0.605 – 0.902 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.573 0.536 – 0.599 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.488 0.476 – 0.498 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.663 0.497 – 0.793 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.321 0.000 – 0.482 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -14.1459%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
AAVE · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -8.5387%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.5024%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.