VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #239 Competition C210 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261011

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-09 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-12 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
3.8111%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.826
Optimizer
0.826
Portfolio Quality
0.911
Portfolio Risk
0.703
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.825020
Memory Adjustment
0.000667
Expected Alpha
0.825686
Correlation Score
0.302867
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.825686

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-09 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG AERO Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.745
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.747790
Exhaustion Penalty
0.002728
After Exhaustion
0.745062
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.745062
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 73

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.747296 0.747296 0.216869780
Trend 0.199454 0.775424 0.775424 0.150021796
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.568405 0.568405 0.043970282
Risk Control 0.079750 0.617064 0.617064 0.047734411
Rank 0.059836 0.411765 0.411765 0.023899334
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.665386 0.665386 0.038619801
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.736641726
Macro Contribution: 0.011148210
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.747790
Historical Raw Score: 0.747790

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 75%
Trend 78%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 57%
Risk Control 62%
Relative Strength 67%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 43%
Supply Quality 50%
Mean Reversion Risk 36%
Momentum Exhaustion 42%
LONG NEAR Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.691
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.711974
Exhaustion Penalty
0.021045
After Exhaustion
0.690929
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.690929
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 73

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.823081 0.823081 0.238863042
Trend 0.199454 0.609247 0.609247 0.117871422
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.850064 0.850064 0.065758665
Risk Control 0.079750 0.691635 0.691635 0.053503023
Rank 0.059836 0.865546 0.865546 0.050237328
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.628079 0.628079 0.036454458
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.700825992
Macro Contribution: 0.011148210
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.711974
Historical Raw Score: 0.711974

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 82%
Trend 61%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 69%
Relative Strength 63%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 46%
Sector Strength 40%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 42%
Momentum Exhaustion 59%
SHORT DOGE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.680
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.680376
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.680376
Final Selection Score
0.680376
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 73

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.449783 0.550217 0.164614714
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.463842 0.536158 0.106939015
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.974790 0.974790 0.077739312
Risk Control 0.079750 0.800125 0.800125 0.063809812
Rank 0.059836 0.915966 0.915966 0.054808005
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.396564 0.603436 0.036107370
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.574500 0.425500 0.033947121
Factor Total: 0.680375715
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.680376
Historical Raw Score: 0.680376

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 45%
Trend 46%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 97%
Risk Control 80%
Relative Strength 40%
Trend Acceleration 57%
Sector Rotation 28%
Sector Strength 25%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 28%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.327 0.327 – 0.327 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.498 0.415 – 0.619 1.0000 3
Depth 0.594 0.329 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.559 0.476 – 0.680 1.0000 3
Extension 0.014 0.000 – 0.041 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.703 0.703 – 0.703 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.220 0.220 – 0.220 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.798 0.568 – 0.975 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.335 0.226 – 0.420 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.673 0.450 – 0.823 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.430 0.278 – 0.587 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.731 0.412 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.563 0.397 – 0.665 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.703 0.617 – 0.800 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.412 0.276 – 0.498 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.362 0.250 – 0.435 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.834 0.503 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.616 0.464 – 0.775 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.525 0.000 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
AERO · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.6351%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +11.8859%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
DOGE · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Breadth
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.0877%
Attribution Confidence: 64%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.