VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #238 Competition C209 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261010

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-08 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-11 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
2.7383%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.840
Optimizer
0.840
Portfolio Quality
0.914
Portfolio Risk
0.713
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.847041
Memory Adjustment
-0.006667
Expected Alpha
0.840375
Correlation Score
0.175350
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.840375

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-08 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.787
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.836307
Exhaustion Penalty
0.049656
After Exhaustion
0.786650
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.786650
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 72

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 1.000000 1.000000 0.290205996
Trend 0.199454 0.757967 0.757967 0.146644379
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.852585 0.852585 0.065953682
Risk Control 0.079750 0.398828 0.398828 0.030852261
Rank 0.059836 0.873950 0.873950 0.050725106
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.917936 0.917936 0.053278106
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.638500 0.638500 0.049412408
Factor Total: 0.825209994
Macro Contribution: 0.011096610
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.836307
Historical Raw Score: 0.836307

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 76%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 40%
Relative Strength 92%
Trend Acceleration 64%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 46%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 52%
Momentum Exhaustion 63%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.786
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.785724
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.785724
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.785724
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 72

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.716020 0.716020 0.207793298
Trend 0.199454 0.738255 0.738255 0.142830685
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.881443 0.881443 0.068186060
Risk Control 0.079750 0.840957 0.840957 0.065054172
Rank 0.059836 0.680672 0.680672 0.039507019
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.615593 0.615593 0.035729756
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.774627309
Macro Contribution: 0.011096610
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.785724
Historical Raw Score: 0.785724

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 72%
Trend 74%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 88%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 62%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 57%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 26%
Momentum Exhaustion 35%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.637
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.636820
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.636820
Final Selection Score
0.636820
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 72

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.470944 0.529056 0.158283736
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.472299 0.527701 0.105252230
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.736058 0.736058 0.058700482
Risk Control 0.079750 0.898140 0.898140 0.071626489
Rank 0.059836 0.596639 0.596639 0.035700663
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.466943 0.533057 0.031896152
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.587000 0.413000 0.032949849
Factor Total: 0.636819966
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.636820
Historical Raw Score: 0.636820

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 47%
Trend 47%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 74%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 59%
Sector Rotation 46%
Sector Strength 45%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 37%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.382 0.382 – 0.382 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.538 0.491 – 0.618 1.0000 3
Depth 0.550 0.285 – 0.913 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.586 0.539 – 0.666 1.0000 3
Extension 0.045 0.000 – 0.136 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.694 0.694 – 0.694 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.230 0.230 – 0.230 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.823 0.736 – 0.881 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.368 0.257 – 0.516 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.729 0.471 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.447 0.347 – 0.627 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.717 0.597 – 0.874 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.667 0.467 – 0.918 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.713 0.399 – 0.898 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.514 0.462 – 0.567 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.471 0.446 – 0.507 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.656 0.472 – 0.758 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.742 0.587 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +7.5722%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
AAVE · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.6110%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.0316%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.