VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #237 Competition C208 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261009

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-07 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-10 00:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

3.0530%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Bull

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.843

Optimizer

0.843

Portfolio Quality

0.938

Portfolio Risk

0.793

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.842523

Memory Adjustment

0.000667

Expected Alpha

0.843190

Correlation Score

0.231567

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.843190

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-07 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG NEAR Decision #1

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.774

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.809191

Exhaustion Penalty

0.035260

After Exhaustion

0.773931

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.773931

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 71

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	1.000000	1.000000	0.310891932
Trend	0.206040	0.724890	0.724890	0.144875862
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.850064	0.850064	0.062898173
Risk Control	0.070178	0.626473	0.626473	0.042645832
Rank	0.057233	0.865546	0.865546	0.048052012
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.812529	0.812529	0.045108698
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.154500	0.154500	0.011436382

Factor Total: 0.798037963

Macro Contribution: 0.011152920

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.809191

Historical Raw Score: 0.809191

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 100%

Trend 72%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 85%

Risk Control 63%

Relative Strength 81%

Trend Acceleration 15%

Sector Rotation 62%

Sector Strength 57%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 47%

Momentum Exhaustion 66%

LONG AAVE Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.769

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.769425

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.769425

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.769425

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 71

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	0.736964	0.736964	0.229116162
Trend	0.206040	0.741973	0.741973	0.148290055
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.881443	0.881443	0.065219977
Risk Control	0.070178	0.849239	0.849239	0.057810159
Rank	0.057233	0.680672	0.680672	0.037788470
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.622636	0.622636	0.034566519
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.720750	0.720750	0.053351276

Factor Total: 0.758271690

Macro Contribution: 0.011152920

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.769425

Historical Raw Score: 0.769425

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 74%

Trend 74%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 88%

Risk Control 85%

Relative Strength 62%

Trend Acceleration 72%

Sector Rotation 65%

Sector Strength 60%

Supply Quality 96%

Mean Reversion Risk 25%

Momentum Exhaustion 40%

SHORT PAXG Decision #3

Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.570

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.570062

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.570062

Final Selection Score

0.570062

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 71

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.320507	0.488170	0.511830	0.164045173
Trend (inverted)	0.206040	0.491082	0.508918	0.104857622
Liquidity	0.136216	0.640789	0.640789	0.087285418
Market Quality	0.076281	0.646122	0.646122	0.049286639
Risk Control	0.070178	0.904759	0.904759	0.063494399
Rank	0.057233	0.596639	0.596639	0.034147690
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.057233	0.486321	0.513679	0.029399605
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.076311	0.508000	0.492000	0.037545123

Factor Total: 0.570061667

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.570062

Historical Raw Score: 0.570062

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 49%

Trend 49%

Liquidity 64%

Market Quality 65%

Risk Control 90%

Relative Strength 49%

Trend Acceleration 51%

Sector Rotation 51%

Sector Strength 48%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 35%

Momentum Exhaustion 39%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.557	0.557 – 0.557	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.522	0.470 – 0.585	1.0000	3
Depth	0.550	0.285 – 0.913	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.540	0.488 – 0.603	1.0000	3
Extension	0.028	0.000 – 0.083	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.880	0.641 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.692	0.692 – 0.692	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.242	0.242 – 0.242	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.793	0.646 – 0.881	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.357	0.253 – 0.468	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.742	0.488 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.483	0.389 – 0.665	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.714	0.597 – 0.866	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.640	0.486 – 0.813	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.793	0.626 – 0.905	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.595	0.508 – 0.654	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.551	0.483 – 0.602	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.988	0.965 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.653	0.491 – 0.742	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.461	0.155 – 0.721	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

NEAR · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +9.8958%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

AAVE · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +0.2575%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

PAXG · SHORT LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -0.9943%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.