VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #236 Competition C207 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261008

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-06 00:05:01

Scored: 2026-10-09 00:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-7.1281%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Bull

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.835

Optimizer

0.835

Portfolio Quality

0.922

Portfolio Risk

0.741

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.838313

Memory Adjustment

-0.003333

Expected Alpha

0.834980

Correlation Score

0.206375

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.834980

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-06 00:05:01

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG AAVE Decision #1

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.779

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.779358

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.779358

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.779358

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 70

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	0.825917	0.825917	0.256770932
Trend	0.206040	0.816454	0.816454	0.163175761
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.883963	0.883963	0.065406438
Risk Control	0.070178	0.832156	0.832156	0.056647270
Rank	0.057233	0.689076	0.689076	0.038255030
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.739800	0.739800	0.041071045
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.199500	0.199500	0.014767367

Factor Total: 0.768222913

Macro Contribution: 0.011135010

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.779358

Historical Raw Score: 0.779358

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 83%

Trend 82%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 88%

Risk Control 83%

Relative Strength 74%

Trend Acceleration 20%

Sector Rotation 68%

Sector Strength 62%

Supply Quality 96%

Mean Reversion Risk 30%

Momentum Exhaustion 52%

LONG NEAR Decision #2

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.759

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.801707

Exhaustion Penalty

0.042248

After Exhaustion

0.759459

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.759459

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 70

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	1.000000	1.000000	0.310891932
Trend	0.206040	0.759694	0.759694	0.151831758
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.849931	0.849931	0.062888332
Risk Control	0.070178	0.481620	0.481620	0.032785269
Rank	0.057233	0.865546	0.865546	0.048052012
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.936543	0.936543	0.051993511
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000000

Factor Total: 0.790571885

Macro Contribution: 0.011135010

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.801707

Historical Raw Score: 0.801707

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! High momentum exhaustion

Momentum 100%

Trend 76%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 85%

Risk Control 48%

Relative Strength 94%

Trend Acceleration 0%

Sector Rotation 64%

Sector Strength 56%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 49%

Momentum Exhaustion 72%

SHORT PAXG Decision #3

Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.582

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.581695

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.581695

Final Selection Score

0.581695

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 70

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.320507	0.484599	0.515401	0.165189704
Trend (inverted)	0.206040	0.487268	0.512732	0.105643459
Liquidity	0.136216	0.660203	0.660203	0.089929906
Market Quality	0.076281	0.648455	0.648455	0.049464602
Risk Control	0.070178	0.909329	0.909329	0.063815113
Rank	0.057233	0.588235	0.588235	0.033666700
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.057233	0.481636	0.518364	0.029667744
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.076311	0.419250	0.580750	0.044317744

Factor Total: 0.581694972

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.581695

Historical Raw Score: 0.581695

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 48%

Trend 49%

Liquidity 66%

Market Quality 65%

Risk Control 91%

Relative Strength 48%

Trend Acceleration 42%

Sector Rotation 51%

Sector Strength 48%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 34%

Momentum Exhaustion 40%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.636	0.636 – 0.636	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.591	0.469 – 0.761	1.0000	3
Depth	0.550	0.285 – 0.913	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.614	0.492 – 0.784	1.0000	3
Extension	0.042	0.000 – 0.126	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.887	0.660 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.690	0.690 – 0.690	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.242	0.242 – 0.242	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.794	0.648 – 0.884	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.377	0.299 – 0.491	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.770	0.485 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.549	0.400 – 0.724	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.300	0.200 – 0.500	1.0000	3
Rank	0.714	0.588 – 0.866	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.719	0.482 – 0.937	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.741	0.482 – 0.909	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.608	0.511 – 0.677	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.553	0.479 – 0.622	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.988	0.965 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.688	0.487 – 0.816	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.206	0.000 – 0.419	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

AAVE · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -4.1624%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

NEAR · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Pump Guard

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -16.6301%

Attribution Confidence: 70%

PAXG · SHORT LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -0.5918%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.