VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #235 Competition C206 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 LIVE
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W43

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-05 00:20:03
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.830
Optimizer
0.830
Portfolio Quality
0.932
Portfolio Risk
0.774
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.833506
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.830172
Correlation Score
0.321783
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.830172

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-05 00:20:03
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.770
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.791503
Exhaustion Penalty
0.021598
After Exhaustion
0.769905
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.769905
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 68

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.980434 0.980434 0.172147804
Trend 0.221239 0.700448 0.700448 0.150317381
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.156074014
Market Quality 0.147828 0.849931 0.849931 0.121874157
Risk Control 0.128117 0.653781 0.653781 0.081247937
Rank 0.060338 0.865546 0.865546 0.050658465
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.819643 0.819643 0.047971865
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.780291622
Macro Contribution: 0.011211180
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.791503
Historical Raw Score: 0.791503

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 98%
Trend 70%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 65%
Relative Strength 82%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 69%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.755
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.755202
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.755202
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.755202
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 68

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.762047 0.762047 0.133802701
Trend 0.221239 0.766338 0.766338 0.164457491
Liquidity 0.160901 0.827858 0.827858 0.129207121
Market Quality 0.147828 0.843448 0.843448 0.120944540
Risk Control 0.128117 0.858042 0.858042 0.106632255
Rank 0.060338 0.697479 0.697479 0.040821880
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.673429 0.673429 0.039414288
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.223250 0.223250 0.008710881
Factor Total: 0.743991158
Macro Contribution: 0.011211180
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.755202
Historical Raw Score: 0.755202

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 76%
Trend 77%
Liquidity 83%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 67%
Trend Acceleration 22%
Sector Rotation 62%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 49%
SHORT DOGE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.595
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.595327
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.595327
Final Selection Score
0.595327
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 68

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.181014 0.583483 0.416517 0.075395274
Trend (inverted) 0.221239 0.598367 0.401633 0.088856858
Liquidity 0.160901 0.510542 0.510542 0.082146742
Market Quality 0.147828 0.852425 0.852425 0.126012143
Risk Control 0.128117 0.810549 0.810549 0.103845477
Rank 0.060338 0.915966 0.915966 0.055267458
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.060338 0.550900 0.449100 0.027097747
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.040225 0.087500 0.912500 0.036705551
Factor Total: 0.595327250
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.595327
Historical Raw Score: 0.595327

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 58%
Trend 60%
Liquidity 51%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 9%
Sector Rotation 47%
Sector Strength 43%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 42%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.619 0.619 – 0.619 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.494 0.359 – 0.667 1.0000 3
Depth 0.788 0.451 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.507 0.371 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Extension 0.034 0.000 – 0.102 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.779 0.511 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.696 0.696 – 0.696 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.243 0.243 – 0.243 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.849 0.843 – 0.852 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.346 0.296 – 0.440 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.775 0.583 – 0.980 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.533 0.422 – 0.689 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.826 0.697 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.681 0.551 – 0.820 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.774 0.654 – 0.858 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.564 0.474 – 0.618 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.482 0.433 – 0.519 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.688 0.598 – 0.766 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.104 0.000 – 0.223 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.