VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #234 Competition C205 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261007

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-05 00:20:02
Scored: 2026-10-08 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
2.1569%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.810
Optimizer
0.810
Portfolio Quality
0.932
Portfolio Risk
0.774
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.824901
Memory Adjustment
-0.015000
Expected Alpha
0.809901
Correlation Score
0.321783
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.809901

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-05 00:20:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.757
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.783527
Exhaustion Penalty
0.026998
After Exhaustion
0.756529
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.756529
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 68

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.980434 0.980434 0.284527826
Trend 0.199454 0.700448 0.700448 0.135516140
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.849931 0.849931 0.065748376
Risk Control 0.079750 0.653781 0.653781 0.050574740
Rank 0.059836 0.865546 0.865546 0.050237328
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.819643 0.819643 0.047573063
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.772315526
Macro Contribution: 0.011211180
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.783527
Historical Raw Score: 0.783527

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 98%
Trend 70%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 65%
Relative Strength 82%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 69%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.723
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.723453
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.723453
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.723453
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 68

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.762047 0.762047 0.221150609
Trend 0.199454 0.766338 0.766338 0.148263922
Liquidity 0.142410 0.827858 0.827858 0.114358693
Market Quality 0.079750 0.843448 0.843448 0.065246869
Risk Control 0.079750 0.858042 0.858042 0.066375821
Rank 0.059836 0.697479 0.697479 0.040482518
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.673429 0.673429 0.039086627
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.223250 0.223250 0.017276930
Factor Total: 0.712241989
Macro Contribution: 0.011211180
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.723453
Historical Raw Score: 0.723453

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 76%
Trend 77%
Liquidity 83%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 67%
Trend Acceleration 22%
Sector Rotation 62%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 49%
SHORT DOGE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.565
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.564531
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.564531
Final Selection Score
0.564531
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 68

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.583483 0.416517 0.124614156
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.598367 0.401633 0.080107426
Liquidity 0.142410 0.510542 0.510542 0.072706473
Market Quality 0.079750 0.852425 0.852425 0.067980727
Risk Control 0.079750 0.810549 0.810549 0.064641124
Rank 0.059836 0.915966 0.915966 0.054808005
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.550900 0.449100 0.026872477
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.087500 0.912500 0.072800817
Factor Total: 0.564531205
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.564531
Historical Raw Score: 0.564531

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 58%
Trend 60%
Liquidity 51%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 9%
Sector Rotation 47%
Sector Strength 43%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 42%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.619 0.619 – 0.619 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.494 0.359 – 0.667 1.0000 3
Depth 0.788 0.451 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.507 0.371 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Extension 0.034 0.000 – 0.102 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.779 0.511 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.696 0.696 – 0.696 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.243 0.243 – 0.243 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.849 0.843 – 0.852 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.346 0.296 – 0.440 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.775 0.583 – 0.980 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.533 0.422 – 0.689 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.826 0.697 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.681 0.551 – 0.820 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.774 0.654 – 0.858 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.564 0.474 – 0.618 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.482 0.433 – 0.519 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.688 0.598 – 0.766 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.104 0.000 – 0.223 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +5.2424%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
AAVE · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -3.6751%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
DOGE · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +4.9033%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.