VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #233 Competition C204 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261006

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-10-04 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-10-07 00:20:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-1.3020%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Bull

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.839

Optimizer

0.839

Portfolio Quality

0.933

Portfolio Risk

0.778

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.838718

Memory Adjustment

0.000667

Expected Alpha

0.839385

Correlation Score

0.242275

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.839385

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-10-04 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG NEAR Decision #1

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.810

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.836261

Exhaustion Penalty

0.026638

After Exhaustion

0.809623

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.809623

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 67

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	1.000000	1.000000	0.310891932
Trend	0.206040	0.730269	0.730269	0.145950904
Liquidity	0.136216	0.897736	0.897736	0.118617024
Market Quality	0.076281	0.821844	0.821844	0.060810111
Risk Control	0.070178	0.567957	0.567957	0.038662479
Rank	0.057233	0.857143	0.857143	0.047585508
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.916193	0.916193	0.050863752
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.699000	0.699000	0.051741300

Factor Total: 0.825123009

Macro Contribution: 0.011138190

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.836261

Historical Raw Score: 0.836261

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Momentum appears extended

Momentum 100%

Trend 73%

Liquidity 90%

Market Quality 82%

Risk Control 57%

Relative Strength 92%

Trend Acceleration 70%

Sector Rotation 61%

Sector Strength 49%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 44%

Momentum Exhaustion 62%

LONG AAVE Decision #2

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.776

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.776456

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.776456

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.776456

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 67

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.320507	0.781276	0.781276	0.242892405
Trend	0.206040	0.780847	0.780847	0.156059378
Liquidity	0.136216	1.000000	1.000000	0.132129071
Market Quality	0.076281	0.886483	0.886483	0.065592898
Risk Control	0.070178	0.859162	0.859162	0.058485647
Rank	0.057233	0.697479	0.697479	0.038721535
Relative Strength	0.057233	0.687107	0.687107	0.038145718
Trend Acceleration	0.076311	0.449750	0.449750	0.033291344

Factor Total: 0.765317996

Macro Contribution: 0.011138190

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.776456

Historical Raw Score: 0.776456

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 78%

Trend 78%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 89%

Risk Control 86%

Relative Strength 69%

Trend Acceleration 45%

Sector Rotation 65%

Sector Strength 56%

Supply Quality 96%

Mean Reversion Risk 27%

Momentum Exhaustion 46%

SHORT PAXG Decision #3

Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.520

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.520045

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.520045

Final Selection Score

0.520045

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 96

Confidence Cap: 94

Final Confidence Index: 94

Calibration Samples: 67

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.320507	0.473741	0.526259	0.168669770
Trend (inverted)	0.206040	0.478066	0.521934	0.107539442
Liquidity	0.136216	0.257032	0.257032	0.035011752
Market Quality	0.076281	0.550183	0.550183	0.041968345
Risk Control	0.070178	0.905852	0.905852	0.063571103
Rank	0.057233	0.596639	0.596639	0.034147690
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.057233	0.462679	0.537321	0.030752718
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.076311	0.497000	0.503000	0.038384546

Factor Total: 0.520045367

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.520045

Historical Raw Score: 0.520045

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Low liquidity

Momentum 47%

Trend 48%

Liquidity 26%

Market Quality 55%

Risk Control 91%

Relative Strength 46%

Trend Acceleration 50%

Sector Rotation 48%

Sector Strength 41%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 37%

Momentum Exhaustion 38%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.647	0.647 – 0.647	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.537	0.456 – 0.700	1.0000	3
Depth	0.550	0.285 – 0.913	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.546	0.465 – 0.709	1.0000	3
Extension	0.045	0.000 – 0.136	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.718	0.257 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.689	0.689 – 0.689	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.244	0.244 – 0.244	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.753	0.550 – 0.886	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.360	0.270 – 0.439	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.752	0.474 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.487	0.382 – 0.617	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.300	0.200 – 0.500	1.0000	3
Rank	0.717	0.597 – 0.857	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.689	0.463 – 0.916	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.778	0.568 – 0.906	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.579	0.475 – 0.654	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.487	0.411 – 0.561	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.988	0.965 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.663	0.478 – 0.781	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.549	0.450 – 0.699	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

NEAR · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Pump Guard

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -0.6812%

Attribution Confidence: 70%

AAVE · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -2.5911%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

PAXG · SHORT LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -0.6336%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.