VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #232 Competition C203 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261005

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-03 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-06 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
2.1765%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.853
Optimizer
0.853
Portfolio Quality
0.925
Portfolio Risk
0.751
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.852038
Memory Adjustment
0.000667
Expected Alpha
0.852705
Correlation Score
0.238700
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.852705

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-03 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.836
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.859851
Exhaustion Penalty
0.023702
After Exhaustion
0.836149
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.836149
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 66

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 1.000000 1.000000 0.290205996
Trend 0.199454 0.697621 0.697621 0.134969198
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.847410 0.847410 0.065553358
Risk Control 0.079750 0.532412 0.532412 0.041185960
Rank 0.059836 0.857143 0.857143 0.049749608
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.886936 0.886936 0.051478829
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.848669270
Macro Contribution: 0.011181630
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.859851
Historical Raw Score: 0.859851

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 70%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 53%
Relative Strength 89%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 46%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 57%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.777
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.777455
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.777455
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.777455
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 66

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.813236 0.813236 0.236005964
Trend 0.199454 0.806433 0.806433 0.156021128
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.888870 0.888870 0.068760592
Risk Control 0.079750 0.820533 0.820533 0.063474226
Rank 0.059836 0.705882 0.705882 0.040970238
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.734107 0.734107 0.042608451
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.262250 0.262250 0.020295073
Factor Total: 0.766273726
Macro Contribution: 0.011181630
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.777455
Historical Raw Score: 0.777455

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 81%
Trend 81%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 89%
Risk Control 82%
Relative Strength 73%
Trend Acceleration 26%
Sector Rotation 63%
Sector Strength 56%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 51%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.639
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.638500
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.638500
Final Selection Score
0.638500
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 66

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.475290 0.524710 0.156983493
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.478786 0.521214 0.103958370
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.735925 0.735925 0.058689875
Risk Control 0.079750 0.901437 0.901437 0.071889425
Rank 0.059836 0.596639 0.596639 0.035700663
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.463729 0.536271 0.032088466
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.539000 0.461000 0.036779372
Factor Total: 0.638500028
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.638500
Historical Raw Score: 0.638500

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 74%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 46%
Trend Acceleration 54%
Sector Rotation 47%
Sector Strength 39%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.547 0.547 – 0.547 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.528 0.425 – 0.705 1.0000 3
Depth 0.549 0.285 – 0.912 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.546 0.443 – 0.722 1.0000 3
Extension 0.048 0.000 – 0.143 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.693 0.693 – 0.693 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.243 0.243 – 0.243 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.824 0.736 – 0.889 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.348 0.306 – 0.429 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.763 0.475 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.485 0.376 – 0.568 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.720 0.597 – 0.857 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.695 0.464 – 0.887 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.751 0.532 – 0.901 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.558 0.465 – 0.633 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.469 0.391 – 0.557 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.661 0.479 – 0.806 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.600 0.262 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +3.7723%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
AAVE · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +2.5872%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.1701%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.