VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #231 Competition C202 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261004

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-02 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-05 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
0.3486%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.835
Optimizer
0.835
Portfolio Quality
0.917
Portfolio Risk
0.722
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.841954
Memory Adjustment
-0.006667
Expected Alpha
0.835287
Correlation Score
0.229525
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.835287

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-02 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG NEAR Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.833
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.856030
Exhaustion Penalty
0.023527
After Exhaustion
0.832503
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.832503
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 65

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.684102 0.684102 0.136724009
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.849931 0.849931 0.062888332
Risk Control 0.070178 0.448406 0.448406 0.030524296
Rank 0.057233 0.865546 0.865546 0.048052012
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.893614 0.893614 0.049610247
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.844841787
Macro Contribution: 0.011188710
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.856030
Historical Raw Score: 0.856030

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 68%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 85%
Risk Control 45%
Relative Strength 89%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 61%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 57%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.798
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.798099
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.798099
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.798099
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 65

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.801209 0.801209 0.249089414
Trend 0.206040 0.822735 0.822735 0.164431076
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.886346 0.886346 0.065582761
Risk Control 0.070178 0.810245 0.810245 0.055155725
Rank 0.057233 0.697479 0.697479 0.038721535
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.730450 0.730450 0.040551966
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.557250 0.557250 0.041248697
Factor Total: 0.786910245
Macro Contribution: 0.011188710
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.798099
Historical Raw Score: 0.798099

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 80%
Trend 82%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 89%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 73%
Trend Acceleration 56%
Sector Rotation 69%
Sector Strength 65%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 46%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.561
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.561246
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.561246
Final Selection Score
0.561246
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 65

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.491799 0.508201 0.162882052
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.495220 0.504780 0.104005027
Liquidity 0.136216 0.618237 0.618237 0.084213485
Market Quality 0.076281 0.637830 0.637830 0.048654119
Risk Control 0.070178 0.906414 0.906414 0.063610543
Rank 0.057233 0.588235 0.588235 0.033666700
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.484364 0.515636 0.029511611
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.545250 0.454750 0.034702530
Factor Total: 0.561246068
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.561246
Historical Raw Score: 0.561246

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 50%
Liquidity 62%
Market Quality 64%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 48%
Trend Acceleration 55%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 44%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.608 0.608 – 0.608 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.573 0.471 – 0.703 1.0000 3
Depth 0.549 0.284 – 0.912 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.572 0.470 – 0.703 1.0000 3
Extension 0.051 0.000 – 0.153 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.873 0.618 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.691 0.691 – 0.691 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.248 0.248 – 0.248 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.791 0.638 – 0.886 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.348 0.275 – 0.428 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.764 0.492 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.473 0.384 – 0.572 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.717 0.588 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.703 0.484 – 0.894 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.722 0.448 – 0.906 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.601 0.507 – 0.686 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.539 0.440 – 0.654 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.988 0.965 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.667 0.495 – 0.823 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.701 0.545 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +2.1433%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
AAVE · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.9892%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PAXG · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.1083%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.