VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #230 Competition C201 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 OPEN
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Research Identity

VDX Monthly Top Picks #2026-12

Strategy: cmc_v4_monthly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-01 00:05:03
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.852
Optimizer
0.852
Portfolio Quality
0.943
Portfolio Risk
0.811
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.852068
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.852068
Correlation Score
0.287058
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.852068

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-01 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG AAVE Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.804
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.803948
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.803948
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.803948
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 64

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 71%
Trend 74%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 88%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 63%
Trend Acceleration 63%
Sector Rotation 78%
Sector Strength 78%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
LONG ARB Decision #2
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.742
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.742154
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.742154
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.742154
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 64

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 89%
Trend 70%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 76%
Risk Control 69%
Relative Strength 71%
Trend Acceleration 32%
Sector Rotation 81%
Sector Strength 83%
Supply Quality 68%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 53%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.670
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.669535
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.669535
Final Selection Score
0.669535
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 64

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 80%
Market Quality 69%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 46%
Trend Acceleration 49%
Sector Rotation 59%
Sector Strength 60%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.729 0.729 – 0.729 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.540 0.439 – 0.702 1.0000 3
Depth 0.692 0.284 – 0.912 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.526 0.425 – 0.688 1.0000 3
Extension 0.006 0.000 – 0.019 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.933 0.799 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.679 0.679 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.249 0.249 – 0.249 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.776 0.686 – 0.881 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.276 0.231 – 0.305 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.692 0.476 – 0.890 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.439 0.384 – 0.529 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.605 0.538 – 0.681 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.604 0.464 – 0.715 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.811 0.687 – 0.903 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.728 0.592 – 0.812 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.739 0.601 – 0.832 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.881 0.679 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.642 0.481 – 0.743 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.479 0.320 – 0.627 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.