VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #229 Competition C200 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261003

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-10-01 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-04 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
1.9423%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.840
Optimizer
0.840
Portfolio Quality
0.937
Portfolio Risk
0.790
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.847277
Memory Adjustment
-0.007667
Expected Alpha
0.839610
Correlation Score
0.225917
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.839610

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-10-01 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.793
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.793042
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.793042
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.793042
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 64

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.841030 0.841030 0.261469441
Trend 0.206040 0.711833 0.711833 0.142266302
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.909457 0.909457 0.067292797
Risk Control 0.070178 0.756064 0.756064 0.051467467
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.681993 0.681993 0.037861807
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.572750 0.572750 0.042396037
Factor Total: 0.782001870
Macro Contribution: 0.011040000
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.793042
Historical Raw Score: 0.793042

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 84%
Trend 71%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 76%
Relative Strength 68%
Trend Acceleration 57%
Sector Rotation 78%
Sector Strength 78%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 24%
Momentum Exhaustion 45%
LONG STX Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.759
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.785358
Exhaustion Penalty
0.026235
After Exhaustion
0.759123
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.759123
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 64

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.975479 0.975479 0.303268551
Trend 0.206040 0.886293 0.886293 0.177133720
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.641240 0.641240 0.047446809
Risk Control 0.070178 0.710858 0.710858 0.048390164
Rank 0.057233 0.336134 0.336134 0.018660955
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.851793 0.851793 0.047288495
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.774317765
Macro Contribution: 0.011040000
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.785358
Historical Raw Score: 0.785358

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! High momentum exhaustion
Momentum 98%
Trend 89%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 64%
Risk Control 71%
Relative Strength 85%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 68%
Sector Strength 63%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 70%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.603
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.603175
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.603175
Final Selection Score
0.603175
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 64

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.476300 0.523700 0.167849592
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.480830 0.519170 0.106969947
Liquidity 0.136216 0.799462 0.799462 0.108899146
Market Quality 0.076281 0.685657 0.685657 0.052302396
Risk Control 0.070178 0.903489 0.903489 0.063405272
Rank 0.057233 0.596639 0.596639 0.034147690
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.463907 0.536093 0.030682435
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.490000 0.510000 0.038918725
Factor Total: 0.603175203
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.603175
Historical Raw Score: 0.603175

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 80%
Market Quality 69%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 46%
Trend Acceleration 49%
Sector Rotation 59%
Sector Strength 60%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.729 0.729 – 0.729 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.572 0.463 – 0.774 1.0000 3
Depth 0.495 0.202 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.558 0.449 – 0.760 1.0000 3
Extension 0.015 0.000 – 0.046 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.933 0.799 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.679 0.679 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.249 0.249 – 0.249 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.745 0.641 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.329 0.244 – 0.437 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.764 0.476 – 0.975 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.514 0.384 – 0.704 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.594 0.336 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.666 0.464 – 0.852 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.790 0.711 – 0.903 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.685 0.592 – 0.780 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.670 0.601 – 0.784 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.900 0.699 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.693 0.481 – 0.886 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.354 0.000 – 0.573 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.9892%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
STX · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +4.7294%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.1084%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.