VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #228 Competition C199 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
← Previous Report Latest Report Next Report → Browse Research Library Back to VADIE Profile
Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261002

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-30 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-03 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
0.9164%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.842
Optimizer
0.842
Portfolio Quality
0.943
Portfolio Risk
0.811
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.844322
Memory Adjustment
-0.002667
Expected Alpha
0.841655
Correlation Score
0.277425
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.841655

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-30 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG GRT Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.762
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.761741
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.761741
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.761741
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 95
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 63

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.835564 0.835564 0.259770106
Trend 0.206040 0.751554 0.751554 0.150204905
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.595626 0.595626 0.044071726
Risk Control 0.070178 0.810956 0.810956 0.055204125
Rank 0.057233 0.067227 0.067227 0.003732202
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.780314 0.780314 0.043320237
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.840750 0.840750 0.062233903
Factor Total: 0.750666274
Macro Contribution: 0.011074380
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.761741
Historical Raw Score: 0.761741

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 84%
Trend 75%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 60%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 78%
Trend Acceleration 84%
Sector Rotation 70%
Sector Strength 65%
Supply Quality 94%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 49%
LONG UNI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.757
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.757223
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.757223
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.757223
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 94
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 63

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.833607 0.833607 0.259161691
Trend 0.206040 0.690372 0.690372 0.137977126
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.909459 0.909459 0.067292945
Risk Control 0.070178 0.725143 0.725143 0.049362585
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.658257 0.658257 0.036544070
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.223750 0.223750 0.016562398
Factor Total: 0.746148832
Macro Contribution: 0.011074380
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.757223
Historical Raw Score: 0.757223

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 83%
Trend 69%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 73%
Relative Strength 66%
Trend Acceleration 22%
Sector Rotation 70%
Sector Strength 65%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.622
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.621947
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.621947
Final Selection Score
0.621947
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 63

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.483764 0.516236 0.165457327
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.490454 0.509546 0.104987015
Liquidity 0.136216 0.941756 0.941756 0.128281799
Market Quality 0.076281 0.721231 0.721231 0.055016006
Risk Control 0.070178 0.897016 0.897016 0.062951008
Rank 0.057233 0.596639 0.596639 0.034147690
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.470279 0.529721 0.030317744
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.465500 0.534500 0.040788350
Factor Total: 0.621946939
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.621947
Historical Raw Score: 0.621947

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 94%
Market Quality 72%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 47%
Sector Rotation 56%
Sector Strength 54%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 39%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.592 0.592 – 0.592 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.529 0.389 – 0.713 1.0000 3
Depth 0.568 0.284 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.527 0.386 – 0.710 1.0000 3
Extension 0.005 0.000 – 0.011 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.981 0.942 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.683 0.683 – 0.683 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.248 0.248 – 0.248 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.742 0.596 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.314 0.287 – 0.339 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.718 0.484 – 0.836 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.460 0.391 – 0.501 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.504 0.067 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.636 0.470 – 0.780 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.811 0.725 – 0.897 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.650 0.560 – 0.695 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.615 0.538 – 0.653 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.880 0.699 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.644 0.490 – 0.752 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.510 0.224 – 0.841 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
GRT · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +1.8762%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
UNI · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.0313%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.8416%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.