VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #227 Competition C198 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20261001

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-29 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-02 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.8780%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.848
Optimizer
0.848
Portfolio Quality
0.913
Portfolio Risk
0.710
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.851360
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.848027
Correlation Score
0.215992
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.848027

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-29 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG LINK Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.859
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.858803
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.858803
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.858803
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 62

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.829331 0.829331 0.257832317
Trend 0.206040 0.844933 0.844933 0.168867548
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.934484 0.934484 0.069144602
Risk Control 0.070178 0.786579 0.786579 0.053544712
Rank 0.057233 0.907563 0.907563 0.050384645
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.753236 0.753236 0.041816963
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.847741746
Macro Contribution: 0.011061090
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.858803
Historical Raw Score: 0.858803

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 83%
Trend 84%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 93%
Risk Control 79%
Relative Strength 75%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 70%
Sector Strength 70%
Supply Quality 75%
Mean Reversion Risk 25%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
LONG ARB Decision #2
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.786
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.786172
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.786172
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.786172
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 62

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.914316 0.914316 0.284253467
Trend 0.206040 0.629289 0.629289 0.125769133
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.759727 0.759727 0.056213933
Risk Control 0.070178 0.463018 0.463018 0.031518977
Rank 0.057233 0.537815 0.537815 0.029857561
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.744779 0.744779 0.041347461
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.775111491
Macro Contribution: 0.011061090
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.786173
Historical Raw Score: 0.786172

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 91%
Trend 63%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 76%
Risk Control 46%
Relative Strength 74%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 65%
Sector Strength 63%
Supply Quality 68%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 46%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.634
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.633723
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.633723
Final Selection Score
0.633723
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 62

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.455217 0.544783 0.174606845
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.459977 0.540023 0.111266505
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.735792 0.735792 0.056126729
Risk Control 0.070178 0.881459 0.881459 0.061859245
Rank 0.057233 0.596639 0.596639 0.034147690
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.435714 0.564286 0.032296017
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.643500 0.356500 0.027204952
Factor Total: 0.633723520
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.633724
Historical Raw Score: 0.633723

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 46%
Trend 46%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 74%
Risk Control 88%
Relative Strength 44%
Trend Acceleration 64%
Sector Rotation 52%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 35%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.521 0.521 – 0.521 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.547 0.403 – 0.760 1.0000 3
Depth 0.722 0.284 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.541 0.397 – 0.754 1.0000 3
Extension 0.033 0.000 – 0.100 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.680 0.680 – 0.680 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.250 0.250 – 0.250 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.810 0.736 – 0.934 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.286 0.252 – 0.308 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.733 0.455 – 0.914 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.403 0.349 – 0.460 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.681 0.538 – 0.908 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.645 0.436 – 0.753 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.710 0.463 – 0.881 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.621 0.518 – 0.697 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.618 0.523 – 0.697 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.809 0.679 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.645 0.460 – 0.845 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.881 0.644 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
LINK · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.1608%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
ARB · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Pump Guard
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.8543%
Attribution Confidence: 70%
PAXG · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.6188%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.