VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #226 Competition C197 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W42

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-28 00:05:03
Scored: 2026-10-19 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-8.7710%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.856
Optimizer
0.856
Portfolio Quality
0.933
Portfolio Risk
0.775
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.856325
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.856325
Correlation Score
0.189442
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.856325

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-28 00:05:03
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.861
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.860881
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.860881
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.860881
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 60

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.196989 1.000000 1.000000 0.191079218
Trend 0.232165 0.758814 0.758814 0.170885297
Liquidity 0.156340 1.000000 1.000000 0.151650173
Market Quality 0.143638 0.909464 0.909464 0.126714342
Risk Control 0.114527 0.657600 0.657600 0.073053661
Rank 0.058628 0.848739 0.848739 0.048266781
Relative Strength 0.058628 0.885100 0.885100 0.050334588
Trend Acceleration 0.039085 1.000000 1.000000 0.037912543
Factor Total: 0.849896603
Macro Contribution: 0.010984260
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.860881
Historical Raw Score: 0.860881

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 100%
Trend 76%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 66%
Relative Strength 89%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 85%
Sector Strength 88%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
LONG FET Decision #2
Sector: Ai · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.795
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.794788
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.794788
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.794788
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 60

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.196989 0.875383 0.875383 0.167267499
Trend 0.232165 0.864282 0.864282 0.194636744
Liquidity 0.156340 1.000000 1.000000 0.151650173
Market Quality 0.143638 0.635636 0.635636 0.088562272
Risk Control 0.114527 0.787320 0.787320 0.087464429
Rank 0.058628 0.268908 0.268908 0.015292479
Relative Strength 0.058628 0.889100 0.889100 0.050562063
Trend Acceleration 0.039085 0.748250 0.748250 0.028368060
Factor Total: 0.783803719
Macro Contribution: 0.010984260
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.794788
Historical Raw Score: 0.794788

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 88%
Trend 86%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 64%
Risk Control 79%
Relative Strength 89%
Trend Acceleration 75%
Sector Rotation 91%
Sector Strength 100%
Supply Quality 85%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 54%
SHORT SUN Decision #3
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.571
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.571086
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.571086
Final Selection Score
0.571086
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 60

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.196989 0.484951 0.515049 0.101458928
Trend (inverted) 0.232165 0.483661 0.516339 0.119876087
Liquidity 0.156340 0.794065 0.794065 0.124144427
Market Quality 0.143638 0.489582 0.489582 0.070322446
Risk Control 0.114527 0.881540 0.881540 0.100960262
Rank 0.058628 0.058824 0.058824 0.003448713
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.058628 0.485393 0.514607 0.030170196
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.039085 0.470250 0.529750 0.020705330
Factor Total: 0.571086389
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.571086
Historical Raw Score: 0.571086

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 79%
Market Quality 49%
Risk Control 88%
Relative Strength 49%
Trend Acceleration 47%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 69%
Supply Quality 97%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 41%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.725 0.725 – 0.725 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.654 0.434 – 0.951 1.0000 3
Depth 0.510 0.143 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.684 0.463 – 0.980 1.0000 3
Extension 0.036 0.000 – 0.087 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.931 0.794 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.679 0.679 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.242 0.242 – 0.242 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.678 0.490 – 0.909 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.319 0.279 – 0.348 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.787 0.485 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.484 0.408 – 0.545 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.392 0.059 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.753 0.485 – 0.889 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.775 0.658 – 0.882 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.827 0.718 – 0.912 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.859 0.694 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.838 0.699 – 0.966 1.0000 3
Trend 0.702 0.484 – 0.864 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.740 0.470 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -7.4539%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
FET · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -20.6504%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
SUN · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +1.7914%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.