VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #225 Competition C196 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260930

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-28 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-01 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.1458%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.859
Optimizer
0.859
Portfolio Quality
0.911
Portfolio Risk
0.704
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.859344
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.859344
Correlation Score
0.175558
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.859344

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-28 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.888
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.887998
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.887998
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.887998
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 60

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.758814 0.758814 0.151655882
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.909464 0.909464 0.067293315
Risk Control 0.070178 0.657600 0.657600 0.044764737
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.885100 0.885100 0.049137580
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.877013353
Macro Contribution: 0.010984260
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.887998
Historical Raw Score: 0.887998

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 100%
Trend 76%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 66%
Relative Strength 89%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 85%
Sector Strength 88%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
LONG SUI Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.888
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.887740
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.887740
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.887740
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 60

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.959900 0.959900 0.298425165
Trend 0.206040 0.909745 0.909745 0.181820816
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.774836 0.774836 0.057331882
Risk Control 0.070178 0.573593 0.573593 0.039046137
Rank 0.057233 0.823529 0.823529 0.045719379
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.960650 0.960650 0.053331845
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.931500 0.931500 0.068951389
Factor Total: 0.876755685
Macro Contribution: 0.010984260
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.887740
Historical Raw Score: 0.887740

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 96%
Trend 91%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 77%
Risk Control 57%
Relative Strength 96%
Trend Acceleration 93%
Sector Rotation 75%
Sector Strength 75%
Supply Quality 41%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 53%
SHORT SUN Decision #3
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.552
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.552083
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.552083
Final Selection Score
0.552083
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 60

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.484951 0.515049 0.165076885
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.483661 0.516339 0.106386647
Liquidity 0.136216 0.794065 0.794065 0.108163990
Market Quality 0.076281 0.489582 0.489582 0.037345658
Risk Control 0.070178 0.881540 0.881540 0.061864930
Rank 0.057233 0.058824 0.058824 0.003366699
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.485393 0.514607 0.029452718
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.470250 0.529750 0.040425872
Factor Total: 0.552083398
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.552083
Historical Raw Score: 0.552083

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 79%
Market Quality 49%
Risk Control 88%
Relative Strength 49%
Trend Acceleration 47%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 69%
Supply Quality 97%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 41%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.725 0.725 – 0.725 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.658 0.434 – 0.961 1.0000 3
Depth 0.601 0.143 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.687 0.463 – 0.990 1.0000 3
Extension 0.037 0.000 – 0.087 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.931 0.794 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.679 0.679 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.242 0.242 – 0.242 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.725 0.490 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.308 0.279 – 0.331 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.815 0.485 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.479 0.408 – 0.531 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.577 0.059 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.777 0.485 – 0.961 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.704 0.574 – 0.882 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.774 0.718 – 0.850 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.777 0.694 – 0.882 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.692 0.410 – 0.966 1.0200 3
Trend 0.717 0.484 – 0.910 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.801 0.470 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.2183%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
SUI · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.7313%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
SUN · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.9502%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.