VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #224 Competition C195 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260929

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-27 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-30 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-1.1412%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.849
Optimizer
0.849
Portfolio Quality
0.941
Portfolio Risk
0.805
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.852299
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.848965
Correlation Score
0.230208
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.848965

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-27 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.856
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.855814
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.855814
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.855814
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 59

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.768043 0.768043 0.153500382
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.909333 0.909333 0.067283622
Risk Control 0.070178 0.671652 0.671652 0.045721298
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.871764 0.871764 0.048397213
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.537000 0.537000 0.039749754
Factor Total: 0.844792219
Macro Contribution: 0.011021910
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.855814
Historical Raw Score: 0.855814

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 77%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 67%
Relative Strength 87%
Trend Acceleration 54%
Sector Rotation 80%
Sector Strength 81%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 56%
LONG LTC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.814
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.814388
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.814388
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.814388
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 59

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.780320 0.780320 0.242595192
Trend 0.206040 0.794385 0.794385 0.158765070
Liquidity 0.136216 0.934568 0.934568 0.123483602
Market Quality 0.076281 0.924411 0.924411 0.068399277
Risk Control 0.070178 0.835904 0.835904 0.056902407
Rank 0.057233 0.840336 0.840336 0.046652443
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.758243 0.758243 0.042094934
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.871000 0.871000 0.064473065
Factor Total: 0.803365991
Macro Contribution: 0.011021910
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.814388
Historical Raw Score: 0.814388

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 78%
Trend 79%
Liquidity 93%
Market Quality 92%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 76%
Trend Acceleration 87%
Sector Rotation 77%
Sector Strength 78%
Supply Quality 92%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 41%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.515
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.515453
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.515453
Final Selection Score
0.515453
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 59

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.487293 0.512707 0.164326257
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.494710 0.505290 0.104110107
Liquidity 0.136216 0.272376 0.272376 0.037101843
Market Quality 0.076281 0.561182 0.561182 0.042807356
Risk Control 0.070178 0.906052 0.906052 0.063585139
Rank 0.057233 0.621849 0.621849 0.035590544
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.470743 0.529257 0.030291188
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.506750 0.493250 0.037640512
Factor Total: 0.515452947
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.515453
Historical Raw Score: 0.515453

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Low liquidity
Momentum 49%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 27%
Market Quality 56%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 51%
Sector Rotation 62%
Sector Strength 66%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 36%
Momentum Exhaustion 39%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.722 0.722 – 0.722 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.597 0.427 – 0.764 1.0000 3
Depth 0.761 0.283 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.617 0.447 – 0.784 1.0000 3
Extension 0.024 0.000 – 0.071 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.736 0.272 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.680 0.680 – 0.680 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.245 0.245 – 0.245 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.798 0.561 – 0.924 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.298 0.230 – 0.360 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.756 0.487 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.451 0.386 – 0.562 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.770 0.622 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.700 0.471 – 0.872 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.805 0.672 – 0.906 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.731 0.620 – 0.798 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.749 0.656 – 0.811 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.874 0.699 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.686 0.495 – 0.794 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.638 0.507 – 0.871 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +1.1916%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
LTC · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -3.3452%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PAXG · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.2700%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.