VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #223 Competition C194 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260928

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-26 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-09-29 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-3.4264%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.864
Optimizer
0.864
Portfolio Quality
0.941
Portfolio Risk
0.804
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.867203
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.863870
Correlation Score
0.206983
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.863870

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-26 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.883
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.882914
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.882914
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.882914
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 58

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.782266 0.782266 0.156342978
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.909201 0.909201 0.067273855
Risk Control 0.070178 0.646776 0.646776 0.044027916
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.915300 0.915300 0.050814176
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.855500 0.855500 0.063325726
Factor Total: 0.871924601
Macro Contribution: 0.010989030
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.882914
Historical Raw Score: 0.882914

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 100%
Trend 78%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 65%
Relative Strength 92%
Trend Acceleration 86%
Sector Rotation 80%
Sector Strength 78%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 53%
LONG INJ Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.806
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.806297
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.806297
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.806297
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 58

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.807517 0.807517 0.251050520
Trend 0.206040 0.816124 0.816124 0.163109807
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.698844 0.698844 0.051709061
Risk Control 0.070178 0.862743 0.862743 0.058729416
Rank 0.057233 0.394958 0.394958 0.021926653
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.767914 0.767914 0.042631833
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.795308249
Macro Contribution: 0.010989030
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.806297
Historical Raw Score: 0.806297

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 81%
Trend 82%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 70%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 77%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 82%
Sector Strength 83%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 46%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.612
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.611884
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.611884
Final Selection Score
0.611884
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 58

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.486656 0.513344 0.164530420
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.494053 0.505947 0.104245476
Liquidity 0.136216 0.883333 0.883333 0.120323679
Market Quality 0.076281 0.716442 0.716442 0.054650698
Risk Control 0.070178 0.903257 0.903257 0.063388991
Rank 0.057233 0.630252 0.630252 0.036071477
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.471450 0.528550 0.030250724
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.496500 0.503500 0.038422702
Factor Total: 0.611884166
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.611884
Historical Raw Score: 0.611884

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 88%
Market Quality 72%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 50%
Sector Rotation 69%
Sector Strength 73%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 39%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.820 0.820 – 0.820 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.577 0.426 – 0.748 1.0000 3
Depth 0.561 0.283 – 0.999 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.587 0.436 – 0.758 1.0000 3
Extension 0.032 0.000 – 0.096 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.961 0.883 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.677 0.677 – 0.677 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.246 0.246 – 0.246 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.775 0.699 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.284 0.274 – 0.292 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.765 0.487 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.457 0.388 – 0.529 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.625 0.395 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.718 0.471 – 0.915 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.804 0.647 – 0.903 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.769 0.689 – 0.823 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.780 0.727 – 0.833 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.900 0.699 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.697 0.494 – 0.816 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.784 0.497 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -8.8111%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
INJ · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -4.3371%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +2.8689%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.