VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #222 Competition C193 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260927

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-25 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-28 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.6014%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.868
Optimizer
0.868
Portfolio Quality
0.931
Portfolio Risk
0.771
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.868299
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.868299
Correlation Score
0.213642
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.868299

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-25 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.862
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.861804
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.861804
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.861804
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 57

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.777690 0.777690 0.155428423
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.909070 0.909070 0.067264162
Risk Control 0.070178 0.699930 0.699930 0.047646263
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.909971 0.909971 0.050518329
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.536000 0.536000 0.039675732
Factor Total: 0.850672859
Macro Contribution: 0.011130780
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.861804
Historical Raw Score: 0.861804

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 78%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 91%
Trend Acceleration 54%
Sector Rotation 82%
Sector Strength 84%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 57%
LONG LTC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.861
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.861105
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.861105
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.861105
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 57

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.879983 0.879983 0.273579615
Trend 0.206040 0.898958 0.898958 0.179664936
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.940756 0.940756 0.069608681
Risk Control 0.070178 0.712187 0.712187 0.048480633
Rank 0.057233 0.840336 0.840336 0.046652443
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.896057 0.896057 0.049745874
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.677000 0.677000 0.050112819
Factor Total: 0.849974071
Macro Contribution: 0.011130780
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.861105
Historical Raw Score: 0.861105

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 88%
Trend 90%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 94%
Risk Control 71%
Relative Strength 90%
Trend Acceleration 68%
Sector Rotation 91%
Sector Strength 97%
Supply Quality 92%
Mean Reversion Risk 25%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.631
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.631404
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.631404
Final Selection Score
0.631404
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 57

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.480386 0.519614 0.166540000
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.487281 0.512719 0.105640781
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.748130 0.748130 0.057067881
Risk Control 0.070178 0.902100 0.902100 0.063307795
Rank 0.057233 0.638655 0.638655 0.036552409
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.464779 0.535221 0.030632528
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.535500 0.464500 0.035446564
Factor Total: 0.631403494
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.631403
Historical Raw Score: 0.631404

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 75%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 46%
Trend Acceleration 54%
Sector Rotation 74%
Sector Strength 75%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.833 0.833 – 0.833 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.574 0.347 – 0.782 1.0000 3
Depth 0.760 0.283 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.582 0.355 – 0.790 1.0000 3
Extension 0.034 0.000 – 0.074 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.688 0.688 – 0.688 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.246 0.246 – 0.246 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.866 0.748 – 0.941 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.266 0.250 – 0.282 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.787 0.480 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.483 0.378 – 0.570 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.776 0.639 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.757 0.465 – 0.910 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.771 0.700 – 0.902 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.823 0.738 – 0.910 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.852 0.749 – 0.969 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.874 0.699 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.721 0.487 – 0.899 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.583 0.536 – 0.677 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -0.3272%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
LTC · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.9904%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.5135%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.