VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #221 Competition C192 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260926

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-24 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-09-27 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.4830%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.865
Optimizer
0.865
Portfolio Quality
0.924
Portfolio Risk
0.746
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.860792
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.864792
Correlation Score
0.205833
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.864792

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-24 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.906
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.905818
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.905818
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.905818
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 56

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.821558 0.821558 0.164195842
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.911462 0.911462 0.067441151
Risk Control 0.070178 0.641102 0.641102 0.043641671
Rank 0.057233 0.857143 0.857143 0.047585508
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.984429 0.984429 0.054651970
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.894559033
Macro Contribution: 0.011259120
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.905818
Historical Raw Score: 0.905818

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 100%
Trend 82%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 64%
Relative Strength 98%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 74%
Sector Strength 84%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 52%
LONG BCH Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.796
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.800517
Exhaustion Penalty
0.004951
After Exhaustion
0.795565
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.795565
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 56

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.826916 0.826916 0.257081513
Trend 0.206040 0.843997 0.843997 0.168680480
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.911989 0.911989 0.067480145
Risk Control 0.070178 0.734001 0.734001 0.049965575
Rank 0.057233 0.865546 0.865546 0.048052012
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.823807 0.823807 0.045734812
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.272000 0.272000 0.020133954
Factor Total: 0.789257562
Macro Contribution: 0.011259120
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.800517
Historical Raw Score: 0.800517

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 83%
Trend 84%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 73%
Relative Strength 82%
Trend Acceleration 27%
Sector Rotation 82%
Sector Strength 96%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 56%
SHORT XAUT Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.611
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.610829
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.610829
Final Selection Score
0.610829
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 56

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.485127 0.514873 0.165020476
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.491861 0.508139 0.104697116
Liquidity 0.136216 0.862190 0.862190 0.117443674
Market Quality 0.076281 0.726235 0.726235 0.055397715
Risk Control 0.070178 0.863884 0.863884 0.060625863
Rank 0.057233 0.714286 0.714286 0.040881030
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.468836 0.531164 0.030400332
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.523500 0.476500 0.036362299
Factor Total: 0.610828504
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.610829
Historical Raw Score: 0.610829

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 86%
Market Quality 73%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 52%
Sector Rotation 55%
Sector Strength 64%
Supply Quality 88%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.592 0.592 – 0.592 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.748 0.366 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.704 0.322 – 0.997 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.747 0.364 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.062 0.000 – 0.109 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.954 0.862 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.696 0.696 – 0.696 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.248 0.248 – 0.248 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.850 0.726 – 0.912 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.326 0.298 – 0.367 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.771 0.485 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.488 0.379 – 0.562 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.812 0.714 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.759 0.469 – 0.984 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.746 0.641 – 0.864 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.703 0.553 – 0.819 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.814 0.639 – 0.960 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.845 0.699 – 0.957 1.0200 3
Trend 0.719 0.492 – 0.844 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.599 0.272 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.