VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #217 Competition C188 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260923

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-21 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-24 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-4.4017%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.847
Optimizer
0.847
Portfolio Quality
0.899
Portfolio Risk
0.663
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.843469
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.847469
Correlation Score
0.203125
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.847469

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-21 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.860
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.859587
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.859587
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.859587
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 52

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.870244 0.870244 0.173926182
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.913860 0.913860 0.067618585
Risk Control 0.070178 0.696028 0.696028 0.047380643
Rank 0.057233 0.865546 0.865546 0.048052012
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.175250 0.175250 0.012972336
Factor Total: 0.848487176
Macro Contribution: 0.011099670
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.859587
Historical Raw Score: 0.859587

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 87%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 18%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 76%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 65%
LONG AVAX Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.823
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.841169
Exhaustion Penalty
0.017994
After Exhaustion
0.823175
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.823175
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 52

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.961340 0.961340 0.298872850
Trend 0.206040 0.976416 0.976416 0.195145622
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.844116 0.844116 0.062458067
Risk Control 0.070178 0.512245 0.512245 0.034870001
Rank 0.057233 0.840336 0.840336 0.046652443
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.982043 0.982043 0.054519508
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.073250 0.073250 0.005422103
Factor Total: 0.830069666
Macro Contribution: 0.011099670
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.841169
Historical Raw Score: 0.841169

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 96%
Trend 98%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 51%
Relative Strength 98%
Trend Acceleration 7%
Sector Rotation 77%
Sector Strength 82%
Supply Quality 62%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 67%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.574
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.573674
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.573674
Final Selection Score
0.573674
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 52

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.512963 0.487037 0.156098839
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.499078 0.500922 0.103210123
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.588014 0.588014 0.044854120
Risk Control 0.070178 0.779542 0.779542 0.054706889
Rank 0.057233 0.008403 0.008403 0.000480932
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.545286 0.454714 0.026024837
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.317500 0.682500 0.052082411
Factor Total: 0.573673689
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.573674
Historical Raw Score: 0.573674

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 51%
Trend 50%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 59%
Risk Control 78%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 32%
Sector Rotation 74%
Sector Strength 73%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 41%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.699 0.699 – 0.699 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.843 0.571 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.768 0.562 – 0.997 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.835 0.559 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.062 0.000 – 0.095 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.680 0.680 – 0.680 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.257 0.257 – 0.257 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.782 0.588 – 0.914 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.340 0.273 – 0.410 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.825 0.513 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.576 0.409 – 0.672 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.571 0.008 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.842 0.545 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.663 0.512 – 0.780 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.744 0.724 – 0.767 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.773 0.731 – 0.825 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.769 0.619 – 0.990 1.0200 3
Trend 0.782 0.499 – 0.976 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.189 0.073 – 0.318 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.