VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #218 Competition C189 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W41

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-21 00:05:03
Scored: 2026-10-12 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.9157%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.854
Optimizer
0.854
Portfolio Quality
0.938
Portfolio Risk
0.794
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.854269
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.854269
Correlation Score
0.280833
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.854269

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-21 00:05:03
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.867
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.867194
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.867194
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.867194
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 52

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.196989 1.000000 1.000000 0.191079218
Trend 0.232165 0.870244 0.870244 0.195979390
Liquidity 0.156340 1.000000 1.000000 0.151650173
Market Quality 0.143638 0.913860 0.913860 0.127326831
Risk Control 0.114527 0.696028 0.696028 0.077322679
Rank 0.058628 0.865546 0.865546 0.049222575
Relative Strength 0.058628 1.000000 1.000000 0.056868815
Trend Acceleration 0.039085 0.175250 0.175250 0.006644173
Factor Total: 0.856093853
Macro Contribution: 0.011099670
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.867194
Historical Raw Score: 0.867194

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 87%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 18%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 76%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 65%
LONG INJ Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.749
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.753445
Exhaustion Penalty
0.004657
After Exhaustion
0.748788
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.748788
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 52

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.196989 0.784679 0.784679 0.149935849
Trend 0.232165 0.786824 0.786824 0.177193163
Liquidity 0.156340 1.000000 1.000000 0.151650173
Market Quality 0.143638 0.703753 0.703753 0.098052918
Risk Control 0.114527 0.843980 0.843980 0.093758864
Rank 0.058628 0.411765 0.411765 0.023416588
Relative Strength 0.058628 0.784993 0.784993 0.044641622
Trend Acceleration 0.039085 0.097500 0.097500 0.003696473
Factor Total: 0.742345649
Macro Contribution: 0.011099670
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.753445
Historical Raw Score: 0.753445

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 78%
Trend 79%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 70%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 78%
Trend Acceleration 10%
Sector Rotation 77%
Sector Strength 82%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 59%
SHORT DOGE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.635
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.635089
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.635089
Final Selection Score
0.635089
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 52

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.196989 0.526787 0.473213 0.093217701
Trend (inverted) 0.232165 0.534997 0.465003 0.107957640
Liquidity 0.156340 0.677454 0.677454 0.105913419
Market Quality 0.143638 0.894153 0.894153 0.128434105
Risk Control 0.114527 0.842392 0.842392 0.096476754
Rank 0.058628 0.915966 0.915966 0.053700929
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.058628 0.509921 0.490079 0.028732177
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.039085 0.471500 0.528500 0.020656473
Factor Total: 0.635089198
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.635089
Historical Raw Score: 0.635089

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 53%
Trend 53%
Liquidity 68%
Market Quality 89%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 51%
Trend Acceleration 47%
Sector Rotation 66%
Sector Strength 62%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 34%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.699 0.699 – 0.699 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.760 0.501 – 0.958 1.0000 3
Depth 0.799 0.401 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.748 0.490 – 0.946 1.0000 3
Extension 0.032 0.000 – 0.095 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.892 0.677 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.680 0.680 – 0.680 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.257 0.257 – 0.257 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.837 0.704 – 0.914 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.312 0.230 – 0.369 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.770 0.527 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.525 0.339 – 0.648 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.731 0.412 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.765 0.510 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.794 0.696 – 0.844 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.716 0.658 – 0.767 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.737 0.623 – 0.825 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.900 0.699 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.731 0.535 – 0.870 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.248 0.098 – 0.472 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -14.5757%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
INJ · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +1.9912%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
DOGE · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +9.8373%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.