VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #216 Competition C187 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260922

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-20 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-09-23 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
5.8428%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.855
Optimizer
0.855
Portfolio Quality
0.911
Portfolio Risk
0.702
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.854742
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.854742
Correlation Score
0.260975
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.854742

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-20 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.894
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.894386
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.894386
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.894386
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 51

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.833493 0.833493 0.166581160
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.913730 0.913730 0.067608966
Risk Control 0.070178 0.580150 0.580150 0.039492491
Rank 0.057233 0.865546 0.865546 0.048052012
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.850500 0.850500 0.062955616
Factor Total: 0.883227664
Macro Contribution: 0.011158200
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.894386
Historical Raw Score: 0.894386

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 100%
Trend 83%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 58%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 85%
Sector Rotation 71%
Sector Strength 69%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 55%
LONG NEAR Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.868
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.882288
Exhaustion Penalty
0.014583
After Exhaustion
0.867705
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.867705
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 51

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.994440 0.994440 0.309163373
Trend 0.206040 0.870420 0.870420 0.173961357
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.841968 0.841968 0.062299132
Risk Control 0.070178 0.681665 0.681665 0.046402912
Rank 0.057233 0.840336 0.840336 0.046652443
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.608000 0.608000 0.045005308
Factor Total: 0.871130012
Macro Contribution: 0.011158200
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.882288
Historical Raw Score: 0.882288

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 99%
Trend 87%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 68%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 61%
Sector Rotation 83%
Sector Strength 84%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 40%
Momentum Exhaustion 64%
SHORT DOGE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.588
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.587811
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.587811
Final Selection Score
0.587811
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 51

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.555403 0.444597 0.142496516
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.558131 0.441869 0.091042825
Liquidity 0.136216 0.851939 0.851939 0.116047328
Market Quality 0.076281 0.937775 0.937775 0.071534134
Risk Control 0.070178 0.844845 0.844845 0.059289739
Rank 0.057233 0.915966 0.915966 0.052423866
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.546093 0.453907 0.025978649
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.620000 0.380000 0.028998266
Factor Total: 0.587811323
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.587811
Historical Raw Score: 0.587811

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 56%
Trend 56%
Liquidity 85%
Market Quality 94%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 62%
Sector Rotation 67%
Sector Strength 63%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 20%
Momentum Exhaustion 33%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.779 0.779 – 0.779 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.788 0.480 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.815 0.449 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.795 0.491 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.071 0.000 – 0.110 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.951 0.852 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.684 0.684 – 0.684 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.256 0.256 – 0.256 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.898 0.842 – 0.938 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.298 0.198 – 0.399 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.850 0.555 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.507 0.333 – 0.640 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.874 0.840 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.849 0.546 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.702 0.580 – 0.845 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.737 0.673 – 0.828 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.719 0.630 – 0.835 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.900 0.699 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.754 0.558 – 0.870 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.693 0.608 – 0.851 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.