VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #215 Competition C186 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260921

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-19 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-22 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
1.8371%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.859
Optimizer
0.859
Portfolio Quality
0.904
Portfolio Risk
0.681
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.853840
Memory Adjustment
0.004667
Expected Alpha
0.858507
Correlation Score
0.225333
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.858507

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-19 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.889
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.889366
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.889366
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.889366
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 50

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.960092 0.960092 0.191883122
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.913733 0.913733 0.067609188
Risk Control 0.070178 0.397813 0.397813 0.027080284
Rank 0.057233 0.865546 0.865546 0.048052012
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.609000 0.609000 0.045079330
Factor Total: 0.878241355
Macro Contribution: 0.011124810
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.889366
Historical Raw Score: 0.889366

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 96%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 40%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 61%
Sector Rotation 75%
Sector Strength 67%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 61%
LONG DASH Decision #2
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.832
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.832219
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.832219
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.832219
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 50

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.910369 0.910369 0.283026377
Trend 0.206040 0.800108 0.800108 0.159908864
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.658155 0.658155 0.048698389
Risk Control 0.070178 0.740790 0.740790 0.050427722
Rank 0.057233 0.428571 0.428571 0.023792726
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.884229 0.884229 0.049089225
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.821094262
Macro Contribution: 0.011124810
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.832219
Historical Raw Score: 0.832219

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 91%
Trend 80%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 66%
Risk Control 74%
Relative Strength 88%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 65%
Supply Quality 68%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 52%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.620
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.620081
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.620081
Final Selection Score
0.620081
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 94
Final Confidence Index: 94
Calibration Samples: 50

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.509123 0.490877 0.157329586
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.515064 0.484936 0.099916363
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.747997 0.747997 0.057057735
Risk Control 0.070178 0.904939 0.904939 0.063507031
Rank 0.057233 0.638655 0.638655 0.036552409
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.497636 0.502364 0.028752009
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.466000 0.534000 0.040750194
Factor Total: 0.620080865
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.620081
Historical Raw Score: 0.620081

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 51%
Trend 52%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 75%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 50%
Trend Acceleration 47%
Sector Rotation 59%
Sector Strength 60%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.891 0.891 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.681 0.444 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.556 0.282 – 0.996 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.689 0.456 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.077 0.000 – 0.190 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.684 0.684 – 0.684 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.253 0.253 – 0.253 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.773 0.658 – 0.914 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.307 0.270 – 0.339 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.806 0.509 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.511 0.404 – 0.607 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.644 0.429 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.794 0.498 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.681 0.398 – 0.905 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.686 0.588 – 0.751 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.640 0.598 – 0.674 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.793 0.679 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.758 0.515 – 0.960 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.692 0.466 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.