VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #214 Competition C185 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260920

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-18 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-21 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.0872%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.846
Optimizer
0.846
Portfolio Quality
0.905
Portfolio Risk
0.685
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.841278
Memory Adjustment
0.004667
Expected Alpha
0.845945
Correlation Score
0.304583
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.845945

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-18 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.894
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.893507
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.893507
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.893507
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 49

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.919304 0.919304 0.183731269
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.913606 0.913606 0.067599791
Risk Control 0.070178 0.457278 0.457278 0.031128238
Rank 0.057233 0.865546 0.865546 0.048052012
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.722500 0.722500 0.053480814
Factor Total: 0.882529544
Macro Contribution: 0.010977180
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.893507
Historical Raw Score: 0.893507

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 92%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 46%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 72%
Sector Rotation 66%
Sector Strength 57%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 32%
Momentum Exhaustion 58%
LONG DASH Decision #2
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.837
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.836555
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.836555
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.836555
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 49

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.918731 0.918731 0.285626055
Trend 0.206040 0.815772 0.815772 0.163039457
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.658150 0.658150 0.048698019
Risk Control 0.070178 0.696556 0.696556 0.047416585
Rank 0.057233 0.428571 0.428571 0.023792726
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.916014 0.916014 0.050853815
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.825577616
Macro Contribution: 0.010977180
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.836555
Historical Raw Score: 0.836555

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 92%
Trend 82%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 66%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 92%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 67%
Sector Strength 58%
Supply Quality 68%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 53%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.616
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.616265
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.616265
Final Selection Score
0.616265
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 49

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.520001 0.479999 0.153843110
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.524604 0.475396 0.097950738
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.755426 0.755426 0.057624425
Risk Control 0.070178 0.899772 0.899772 0.063144420
Rank 0.057233 0.663866 0.663866 0.037995321
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.512829 0.487171 0.027882462
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.454750 0.545250 0.041608696
Factor Total: 0.616264708
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.616265
Historical Raw Score: 0.616265

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 52%
Trend 52%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 76%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 51%
Trend Acceleration 45%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 56%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 41%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.778 0.778 – 0.778 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.682 0.512 – 0.869 1.0000 3
Depth 0.555 0.281 – 0.995 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.674 0.504 – 0.861 1.0000 3
Extension 0.061 0.000 – 0.137 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.677 0.677 – 0.677 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.246 0.246 – 0.246 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.776 0.658 – 0.914 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.314 0.291 – 0.334 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.813 0.520 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.507 0.412 – 0.576 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.653 0.429 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.810 0.513 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.685 0.457 – 0.900 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.637 0.577 – 0.669 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.568 0.560 – 0.578 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.793 0.679 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.753 0.525 – 0.919 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.726 0.455 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.