VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #208 Competition C179 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260915

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-13 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-16 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-1.2064%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.817
Optimizer
0.817
Portfolio Quality
0.897
Portfolio Risk
0.656
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.805374
Memory Adjustment
0.012000
Expected Alpha
0.817374
Correlation Score
0.281583
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.817374

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-13 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.737
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.737198
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000662
After Exhaustion
0.736537
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.736537
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 44

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.801020 0.801020 0.232460807
Trend 0.199454 0.754007 0.754007 0.145878235
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.580393 0.580393 0.044897641
Risk Control 0.079750 0.507374 0.507374 0.039249088
Rank 0.059836 0.630252 0.630252 0.036580582
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.616907 0.616907 0.035806022
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.685250 0.685250 0.053030309
Factor Total: 0.726040739
Macro Contribution: 0.011157270
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.737198
Historical Raw Score: 0.737198

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 80%
Trend 75%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 58%
Risk Control 51%
Relative Strength 62%
Trend Acceleration 69%
Sector Rotation 55%
Sector Strength 41%
Supply Quality 41%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 49%
LONG PENDLE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.733
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.732832
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.732832
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.732832
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 44

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.784314 0.784314 0.227612626
Trend 0.199454 0.790516 0.790516 0.152941656
Liquidity 0.142410 0.929094 0.929094 0.128343237
Market Quality 0.079750 0.565088 0.565088 0.043713688
Risk Control 0.079750 0.710280 0.710280 0.054945350
Rank 0.059836 0.193277 0.193277 0.011218029
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.785871 0.785871 0.045612895
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.740250 0.740250 0.057286664
Factor Total: 0.721674145
Macro Contribution: 0.011157270
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.732831
Historical Raw Score: 0.732832

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 78%
Trend 79%
Liquidity 93%
Market Quality 57%
Risk Control 71%
Relative Strength 79%
Trend Acceleration 74%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 61%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 49%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.577
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.577485
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.577485
Final Selection Score
0.577485
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 44

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.461459 0.538541 0.161121472
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.435029 0.564971 0.112685891
Liquidity 0.142410 0.933373 0.933373 0.132921990
Market Quality 0.079750 0.581004 0.581004 0.046334955
Risk Control 0.079750 0.750786 0.750786 0.059875037
Rank 0.059836 0.042017 0.042017 0.002514141
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.504643 0.495357 0.029640324
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.594000 0.406000 0.032391377
Factor Total: 0.577485188
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.577485
Historical Raw Score: 0.577485

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 46%
Trend 44%
Liquidity 93%
Market Quality 58%
Risk Control 75%
Relative Strength 50%
Trend Acceleration 59%
Sector Rotation 80%
Sector Strength 70%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 34%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.601 0.601 – 0.601 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.511 0.370 – 0.648 1.0000 3
Depth 0.412 0.262 – 0.562 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.450 0.309 – 0.586 1.0000 3
Extension 0.001 0.000 – 0.004 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.954 0.929 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.682 0.682 – 0.682 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.260 0.260 – 0.260 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.575 0.565 – 0.581 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.321 0.265 – 0.352 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.682 0.461 – 0.801 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.440 0.344 – 0.490 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.289 0.042 – 0.630 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.636 0.505 – 0.786 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.656 0.507 – 0.751 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.649 0.551 – 0.795 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.539 0.409 – 0.700 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.673 0.415 – 0.990 1.0200 3
Trend 0.660 0.435 – 0.791 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.673 0.594 – 0.740 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.