VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #207 Competition C178 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260914

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-12 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-15 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
4.4219%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.828
Optimizer
0.828
Portfolio Quality
0.928
Portfolio Risk
0.761
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.834451
Memory Adjustment
-0.006667
Expected Alpha
0.827784
Correlation Score
0.279933
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.827784

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-12 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG ZEC Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.821
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.849200
Exhaustion Penalty
0.027931
After Exhaustion
0.821269
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.821269
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 43

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.807621 0.807621 0.161410405
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.833641 0.833641 0.061682998
Risk Control 0.070178 0.521044 0.521044 0.035468975
Rank 0.057233 0.924370 0.924370 0.051317710
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.400250 0.400250 0.029627261
Factor Total: 0.838044768
Macro Contribution: 0.011155440
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.849200
Historical Raw Score: 0.849200

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 81%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 83%
Risk Control 52%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 40%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 80%
Mean Reversion Risk 44%
Momentum Exhaustion 67%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.736
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.735767
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.735767
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.735767
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 43

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.664540 0.664540 0.206600124
Trend 0.206040 0.688388 0.688388 0.137580605
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.882823 0.882823 0.065322086
Risk Control 0.070178 0.856455 0.856455 0.058301373
Rank 0.057233 0.689076 0.689076 0.038255030
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.614050 0.614050 0.034089855
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.707000 0.707000 0.052333475
Factor Total: 0.724611621
Macro Contribution: 0.011155440
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.735767
Historical Raw Score: 0.735767

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 66%
Trend 69%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 88%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 61%
Trend Acceleration 71%
Sector Rotation 64%
Sector Strength 56%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.621
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.621405
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.621405
Final Selection Score
0.621405
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 43

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.505331 0.494669 0.158544949
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.510300 0.489700 0.100897939
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.757814 0.757814 0.057806583
Risk Control 0.070178 0.905093 0.905093 0.063517838
Rank 0.057233 0.672269 0.672269 0.038476253
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.493443 0.506557 0.028991989
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.515750 0.484250 0.036953711
Factor Total: 0.621404800
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.621405
Historical Raw Score: 0.621405

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 51%
Trend 51%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 76%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 49%
Trend Acceleration 52%
Sector Rotation 49%
Sector Strength 46%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 39%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.649 0.649 – 0.649 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.568 0.485 – 0.703 1.0000 3
Depth 0.539 0.281 – 0.907 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.500 0.416 – 0.635 1.0000 3
Extension 0.036 0.000 – 0.108 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.683 0.683 – 0.683 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.258 0.258 – 0.258 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.825 0.758 – 0.883 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.325 0.231 – 0.443 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.723 0.505 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.481 0.375 – 0.674 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.762 0.672 – 0.924 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.702 0.493 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.761 0.521 – 0.905 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.577 0.490 – 0.637 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.517 0.463 – 0.557 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.922 0.803 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.669 0.510 – 0.808 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.541 0.400 – 0.707 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.