VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #206 Competition C177 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260913

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-11 04:35:03
Scored: 2026-09-14 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-5.6546%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.836
Optimizer
0.836
Portfolio Quality
0.912
Portfolio Risk
0.705
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.831748
Memory Adjustment
0.004667
Expected Alpha
0.836415
Correlation Score
0.303158
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.836415

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-11 04:35:03
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG ZEC Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.828
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.835946
Exhaustion Penalty
0.007467
After Exhaustion
0.828479
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.828479
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 43

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.920524 0.920524 0.286183485
Trend 0.206040 0.691274 0.691274 0.138157399
Liquidity 0.136216 0.982806 0.982806 0.129857244
Market Quality 0.076281 0.829333 0.829333 0.061364239
Risk Control 0.070178 0.561860 0.561860 0.038247438
Rank 0.057233 0.924370 0.924370 0.051317710
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.821700 0.821700 0.045617839
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.824767242
Macro Contribution: 0.011178300
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.835946
Historical Raw Score: 0.835946

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 92%
Trend 69%
Liquidity 98%
Market Quality 83%
Risk Control 56%
Relative Strength 82%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 57%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 80%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 52%
LONG ETHFI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.781
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.797625
Exhaustion Penalty
0.016886
After Exhaustion
0.780740
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.780740
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 43

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.890170 0.890170 0.276746671
Trend 0.206040 0.827718 0.827718 0.165426974
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.609808 0.609808 0.045121084
Risk Control 0.070178 0.660279 0.660279 0.044947105
Rank 0.057233 0.386555 0.386555 0.021460148
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.860700 0.860700 0.047782980
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.713750 0.713750 0.052833123
Factor Total: 0.786447155
Macro Contribution: 0.011178300
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.797625
Historical Raw Score: 0.797625

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 89%
Trend 83%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 66%
Relative Strength 86%
Trend Acceleration 71%
Sector Rotation 61%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 97%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 56%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.627
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.627239
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.627239
Final Selection Score
0.627239
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 43

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.483706 0.516294 0.165475916
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.487128 0.512872 0.105672305
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.752639 0.752639 0.057411830
Risk Control 0.070178 0.894333 0.894333 0.062762720
Rank 0.057233 0.655462 0.655462 0.037514331
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.467786 0.532214 0.030460427
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.584250 0.415750 0.031726392
Factor Total: 0.627239459
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.627239
Historical Raw Score: 0.627239

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 48%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 75%
Risk Control 89%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 58%
Sector Rotation 44%
Sector Strength 43%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 32%
Momentum Exhaustion 37%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.467 0.467 – 0.467 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.675 0.525 – 0.775 1.0000 3
Depth 0.318 0.245 – 0.429 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.641 0.491 – 0.742 1.0000 3
Extension 0.026 0.000 – 0.079 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.994 0.983 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.691 0.691 – 0.691 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.247 0.247 – 0.247 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.731 0.610 – 0.829 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.367 0.320 – 0.406 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.765 0.484 – 0.921 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.483 0.373 – 0.558 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.655 0.387 – 0.924 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.717 0.468 – 0.861 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.705 0.562 – 0.894 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.538 0.443 – 0.605 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.495 0.429 – 0.534 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.923 0.803 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.669 0.487 – 0.828 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.766 0.584 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.