VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #199 Competition C170 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260907

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-05 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-08 00:30:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-3.9922%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.848
Optimizer
0.848
Portfolio Quality
0.930
Portfolio Risk
0.768
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.854286
Memory Adjustment
-0.006667
Expected Alpha
0.847619
Correlation Score
0.285042
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.847619

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-05 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.878
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.877941
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.877941
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.877941
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 35

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.914140 0.914140 0.284198750
Trend 0.206040 0.846451 0.846451 0.169170934
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.895362 0.895362 0.066249876
Risk Control 0.070178 0.729349 0.729349 0.049648900
Rank 0.057233 0.806723 0.806723 0.044786370
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.836093 0.836093 0.046416887
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.866622676
Macro Contribution: 0.011318070
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.877941
Historical Raw Score: 0.877941

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 91%
Trend 85%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 90%
Risk Control 73%
Relative Strength 84%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 62%
Sector Strength 60%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 26%
Momentum Exhaustion 45%
LONG ZEC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.851
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.868467
Exhaustion Penalty
0.017336
After Exhaustion
0.851131
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.851131
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 35

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.863875 0.863875 0.172653279
Liquidity 0.136216 0.887850 0.887850 0.117310796
Market Quality 0.076281 0.804858 0.804858 0.059553278
Risk Control 0.070178 0.672277 0.672277 0.045763843
Rank 0.057233 0.924370 0.924370 0.051317710
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.980779 0.980779 0.054449335
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.610750 0.610750 0.045208868
Factor Total: 0.857149042
Macro Contribution: 0.011318070
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.868467
Historical Raw Score: 0.868467

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 86%
Liquidity 89%
Market Quality 80%
Risk Control 67%
Relative Strength 98%
Trend Acceleration 61%
Sector Rotation 61%
Sector Strength 58%
Supply Quality 80%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 62%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.620
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.619542
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.619542
Final Selection Score
0.619542
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 35

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.508756 0.491244 0.157447212
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.509596 0.490404 0.101042991
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.757547 0.757547 0.057786216
Risk Control 0.070178 0.902390 0.902390 0.063328146
Rank 0.057233 0.672269 0.672269 0.038476253
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.501679 0.498321 0.028520615
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.518750 0.481250 0.036724777
Factor Total: 0.619541748
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.619542
Historical Raw Score: 0.619542

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 51%
Trend 51%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 76%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 50%
Trend Acceleration 52%
Sector Rotation 49%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.605 0.605 – 0.605 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.747 0.460 – 0.959 1.0000 3
Depth 0.566 0.279 – 0.992 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.770 0.483 – 0.982 1.0000 3
Extension 0.019 0.000 – 0.040 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.963 0.888 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.709 0.709 – 0.709 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.233 0.233 – 0.233 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.819 0.758 – 0.895 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.326 0.261 – 0.408 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.808 0.509 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.489 0.397 – 0.622 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.801 0.672 – 0.924 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.773 0.502 – 0.981 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.768 0.672 – 0.902 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.575 0.493 – 0.623 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.557 0.493 – 0.596 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.834 0.700 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.740 0.510 – 0.864 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.710 0.519 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.