VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #198 Competition C169 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260906

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-04 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-07 00:15:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
3.2004%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.832
Optimizer
0.832
Portfolio Quality
0.909
Portfolio Risk
0.697
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.835560
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.832227
Correlation Score
0.382100
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.832227

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-04 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG ARB Decision #1
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.862
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.861775
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.861775
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.861775
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 34

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.995296 0.995296 0.309429496
Trend 0.206040 0.961500 0.961500 0.192164524
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.744928 0.744928 0.055118921
Risk Control 0.070178 0.530907 0.530907 0.036140378
Rank 0.057233 0.504202 0.504202 0.027991488
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.565750 0.565750 0.041877883
Factor Total: 0.850368177
Macro Contribution: 0.011406510
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.861775
Historical Raw Score: 0.861775

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 96%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 74%
Risk Control 53%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 57%
Sector Rotation 69%
Sector Strength 61%
Supply Quality 67%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 59%
LONG UNI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.861
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.861038
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.861038
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.861038
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 34

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.995129 0.995129 0.309377577
Trend 0.206040 0.898800 0.898800 0.179633358
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.900407 0.900407 0.066623167
Risk Control 0.070178 0.669256 0.669256 0.045558195
Rank 0.057233 0.823529 0.823529 0.045719379
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.931529 0.931529 0.051715152
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.255000 0.255000 0.018875582
Factor Total: 0.849631480
Macro Contribution: 0.011406510
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.861038
Historical Raw Score: 0.861038

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 90%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 90%
Risk Control 67%
Relative Strength 93%
Trend Acceleration 26%
Sector Rotation 63%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 60%
SHORT PAXG Decision #3
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.613
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.613468
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.613468
Final Selection Score
0.613468
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 34

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.529031 0.470969 0.150948930
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.529292 0.470708 0.096984821
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.757414 0.757414 0.057776071
Risk Control 0.070178 0.889748 0.889748 0.062440953
Rank 0.057233 0.672269 0.672269 0.038476253
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.527014 0.472986 0.027070606
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.429250 0.570750 0.043554632
Factor Total: 0.613467803
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.613468
Historical Raw Score: 0.613468

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 53%
Trend 53%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 76%
Risk Control 89%
Relative Strength 53%
Trend Acceleration 43%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 44%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 42%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.750 0.750 – 0.750 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.798 0.451 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.714 0.279 – 0.992 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.814 0.475 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.026 0.000 – 0.069 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.715 0.715 – 0.715 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.234 0.234 – 0.234 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.801 0.745 – 0.900 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.315 0.299 – 0.338 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.840 0.529 – 0.995 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.538 0.422 – 0.599 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.667 0.504 – 0.824 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.820 0.527 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.697 0.531 – 0.890 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.607 0.502 – 0.689 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.526 0.437 – 0.612 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.789 0.668 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.797 0.529 – 0.962 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.417 0.255 – 0.566 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
ARB · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +6.5074%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
UNI · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +2.8381%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
PAXG · SHORT WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +0.2556%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.