VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #200 Competition C171 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260908

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-06 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-09 00:15:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-2.7700%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.827
Optimizer
0.827
Portfolio Quality
0.924
Portfolio Risk
0.748
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.830456
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.827123
Correlation Score
0.303833
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.827123

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-06 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.853
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.854071
Exhaustion Penalty
0.001096
After Exhaustion
0.852975
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.852975
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 36

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.971686 0.971686 0.194200288
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.907963 0.907963 0.067182252
Risk Control 0.070178 0.526466 0.526466 0.035838066
Rank 0.057233 0.848739 0.848739 0.047118948
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.842876973
Macro Contribution: 0.011193510
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.854070
Historical Raw Score: 0.854071

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 97%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 53%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 70%
Sector Strength 65%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 35%
Momentum Exhaustion 67%
LONG LTC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.736
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.735937
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.735937
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.735937
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 36

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.669964 0.669964 0.208286402
Trend 0.206040 0.678418 0.678418 0.135588010
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.935591 0.935591 0.069226511
Risk Control 0.070178 0.814290 0.814290 0.055431080
Rank 0.057233 0.823529 0.823529 0.045719379
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.676193 0.676193 0.037539812
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.551500 0.551500 0.040823072
Factor Total: 0.724743336
Macro Contribution: 0.011193510
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.735937
Historical Raw Score: 0.735937

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 67%
Trend 68%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 94%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 68%
Trend Acceleration 55%
Sector Rotation 68%
Sector Strength 64%
Supply Quality 92%
Mean Reversion Risk 21%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
SHORT INJ Decision #3
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.587
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.586504
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.586504
Final Selection Score
0.586504
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 36

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.514484 0.485516 0.155611348
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.511682 0.488318 0.100613191
Liquidity 0.136216 0.864095 0.864095 0.117703165
Market Quality 0.076281 0.625852 0.625852 0.047740429
Risk Control 0.070178 0.902871 0.902871 0.063361902
Rank 0.057233 0.268908 0.268908 0.015390524
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.520593 0.479407 0.027438102
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.231500 0.768500 0.058645177
Factor Total: 0.586503837
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.586504
Historical Raw Score: 0.586504

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 51%
Trend 51%
Liquidity 86%
Market Quality 63%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 52%
Trend Acceleration 23%
Sector Rotation 68%
Sector Strength 64%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 43%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.806 0.806 – 0.806 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.683 0.419 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.796 0.396 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.691 0.431 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.029 0.000 – 0.086 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.955 0.864 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.699 0.699 – 0.699 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.235 0.235 – 0.235 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.823 0.626 – 0.936 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.288 0.211 – 0.354 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.728 0.514 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.503 0.404 – 0.672 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.647 0.269 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.732 0.521 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.748 0.526 – 0.903 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.686 0.680 – 0.699 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.641 0.636 – 0.650 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.874 0.700 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.721 0.512 – 0.972 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.261 0.000 – 0.552 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.