VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #197 Competition C168 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260905

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-03 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-06 00:45:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
18.9867%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.830
Optimizer
0.830
Portfolio Quality
0.915
Portfolio Risk
0.718
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.836232
Memory Adjustment
-0.006667
Expected Alpha
0.829566
Correlation Score
0.347717
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.829566

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-03 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.857
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.856531
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.856531
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.856531
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 33

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.876273 0.876273 0.254299679
Trend 0.199454 0.842315 0.842315 0.162963243
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.895238 0.895238 0.069253204
Risk Control 0.079750 0.765525 0.765525 0.059218955
Rank 0.059836 0.806723 0.806723 0.046823170
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.818207 0.818207 0.047489716
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.866250 0.866250 0.067037585
Factor Total: 0.845223606
Macro Contribution: 0.011307420
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.856531
Historical Raw Score: 0.856531

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 88%
Trend 84%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 90%
Risk Control 77%
Relative Strength 82%
Trend Acceleration 87%
Sector Rotation 55%
Sector Strength 48%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 45%
LONG ARB Decision #2
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.839
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.838776
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.838776
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.838776
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 33

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.888771 0.888771 0.257926674
Trend 0.199454 0.892080 0.892080 0.172591310
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.737310 0.737310 0.057036319
Risk Control 0.079750 0.621334 0.621334 0.048064727
Rank 0.059836 0.478992 0.478992 0.027801270
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.925986 0.925986 0.053745338
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.932500 0.932500 0.072164558
Factor Total: 0.827468250
Macro Contribution: 0.011307420
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.838776
Historical Raw Score: 0.838776

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 89%
Trend 89%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 74%
Risk Control 62%
Relative Strength 93%
Trend Acceleration 93%
Sector Rotation 59%
Sector Strength 54%
Supply Quality 67%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 48%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.597
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.597028
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.597028
Final Selection Score
0.597028
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 33

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.429321 0.570679 0.170736565
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.403588 0.596412 0.118956934
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.611838 0.611838 0.048793961
Risk Control 0.079750 0.768029 0.768029 0.061250163
Rank 0.059836 0.092437 0.092437 0.005531087
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.479264 0.520736 0.031158909
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.772000 0.228000 0.018190232
Factor Total: 0.597028215
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.597028
Historical Raw Score: 0.597028

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 43%
Trend 40%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 77%
Relative Strength 48%
Trend Acceleration 77%
Sector Rotation 59%
Sector Strength 54%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 24%
Momentum Exhaustion 30%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.572 0.572 – 0.572 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.806 0.479 – 0.990 1.0000 3
Depth 0.808 0.560 – 0.991 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.830 0.509 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.008 0.000 – 0.025 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.707 0.707 – 0.707 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.235 0.235 – 0.235 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.748 0.612 – 0.895 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.268 0.244 – 0.294 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.731 0.429 – 0.889 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.410 0.303 – 0.481 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.459 0.092 – 0.807 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.741 0.479 – 0.926 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.718 0.621 – 0.768 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.580 0.555 – 0.593 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.517 0.478 – 0.536 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.786 0.668 – 0.990 1.0200 3
Trend 0.713 0.404 – 0.892 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.857 0.772 – 0.933 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.