VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #196 Competition C167 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260904

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-02 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-09-05 00:15:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.3772%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.844
Optimizer
0.844
Portfolio Quality
0.906
Portfolio Risk
0.688
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.840331
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.844331
Correlation Score
0.185467
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.844331

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-02 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.857
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.857478
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.857478
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.857478
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 32

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.912281 0.912281 0.283620802
Trend 0.206040 0.915828 0.915828 0.183036559
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.895107 0.895107 0.066231008
Risk Control 0.070178 0.685544 0.685544 0.046666966
Rank 0.057233 0.806723 0.806723 0.044786370
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.878057 0.878057 0.048746578
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.553000 0.553000 0.040934104
Factor Total: 0.846151458
Macro Contribution: 0.011326680
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.857478
Historical Raw Score: 0.857478

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 91%
Trend 92%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 90%
Risk Control 69%
Relative Strength 88%
Trend Acceleration 55%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 52%
LONG PUMP Decision #2
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.768
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.784737
Exhaustion Penalty
0.016901
After Exhaustion
0.767836
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.767836
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 32

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.952263 0.952263 0.296050884
Trend 0.206040 0.712009 0.712009 0.142301477
Liquidity 0.136216 0.913861 0.913861 0.120747605
Market Quality 0.076281 0.559120 0.559120 0.041370563
Risk Control 0.070178 0.481457 0.481457 0.032774173
Rank 0.057233 0.647059 0.647059 0.035922397
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.795036 0.795036 0.044137550
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.812000 0.812000 0.060105773
Factor Total: 0.773410422
Macro Contribution: 0.011326680
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.784737
Historical Raw Score: 0.784737

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 95%
Trend 71%
Liquidity 91%
Market Quality 56%
Risk Control 48%
Relative Strength 80%
Trend Acceleration 81%
Sector Rotation 75%
Sector Strength 77%
Supply Quality 40%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 56%
SHORT INJ Decision #3
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.624
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.624285
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.624285
Final Selection Score
0.624285
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 32

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.413651 0.586349 0.187929045
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.408771 0.591229 0.121817005
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.669913 0.669913 0.051101433
Risk Control 0.070178 0.897480 0.897480 0.062983571
Rank 0.057233 0.302521 0.302521 0.017314311
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.401793 0.598207 0.034237432
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.833750 0.166250 0.012686741
Factor Total: 0.624285075
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.624285
Historical Raw Score: 0.624285

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 41%
Trend 41%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 67%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 40%
Trend Acceleration 83%
Sector Rotation 54%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 26%
Momentum Exhaustion 29%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.538 0.538 – 0.538 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.602 0.343 – 0.977 1.0000 3
Depth 0.547 0.255 – 0.991 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.596 0.337 – 0.971 1.0000 3
Extension 0.026 0.000 – 0.067 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.971 0.914 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.708 0.708 – 0.708 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.235 0.235 – 0.235 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.708 0.559 – 0.895 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.324 0.260 – 0.406 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.759 0.414 – 0.952 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.458 0.290 – 0.564 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.585 0.303 – 0.807 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.692 0.402 – 0.878 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.688 0.481 – 0.897 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.623 0.540 – 0.752 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.590 0.488 – 0.769 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.698 0.396 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.679 0.409 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.733 0.553 – 0.834 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.