VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #173 Competition C144 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260816

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-14 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-1.8686%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.819
Optimizer
0.819
Portfolio Quality
0.873
Portfolio Risk
0.575
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.814893
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.818893
Correlation Score
0.213275
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.818893

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-14 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.789
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.807766
Exhaustion Penalty
0.018772
After Exhaustion
0.788993
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.788993
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.924420 0.924420 0.268272227
Trend 0.199454 0.836606 0.836606 0.161858719
Liquidity 0.142410 0.900154 0.900154 0.124345522
Market Quality 0.079750 0.532899 0.532899 0.041223633
Risk Control 0.079750 0.479115 0.479115 0.037063048
Rank 0.059836 0.579832 0.579832 0.033654145
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.919886 0.919886 0.053391287
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.797196846
Macro Contribution: 0.010568820
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.807766
Historical Raw Score: 0.807766

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 92%
Trend 84%
Liquidity 90%
Market Quality 53%
Risk Control 48%
Relative Strength 92%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 52%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 54%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.635
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.635035
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.635035
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.635035
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.503346 0.503346 0.146074027
Trend 0.199454 0.515280 0.515280 0.099691564
Liquidity 0.142410 0.969992 0.969992 0.133992808
Market Quality 0.079750 0.856949 0.856949 0.066291270
Risk Control 0.079750 0.918107 0.918107 0.071022288
Rank 0.059836 0.638655 0.638655 0.037068302
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.471993 0.471993 0.027395040
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.554750 0.554750 0.042931140
Factor Total: 0.624466439
Macro Contribution: 0.010568820
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.635035
Historical Raw Score: 0.635035

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 50%
Trend 52%
Liquidity 97%
Market Quality 86%
Risk Control 92%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 55%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 54%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 24%
Momentum Exhaustion 32%
SHORT BEAT Decision #3
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: High
Decision Score
0.834
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.833595
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.833595
Final Selection Score
0.833595
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.014253 0.985747 0.294917207
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.063984 0.936016 0.186692410
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.397196 0.397196 0.031676303
Risk Control 0.079750 0.328695 0.328695 0.026213362
Rank 0.059836 0.201681 0.201681 0.012067842
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.000000 1.000000 0.059836288
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.000000 1.000000 0.079781717
Factor Total: 0.833595494
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.833595
Historical Raw Score: 0.833595

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
Negative Evidence
! High crash risk
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Weak risk profile
Momentum 1%
Trend 6%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 40%
Risk Control 33%
Relative Strength 0%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 52%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 33%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 24%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.445 0.445 – 0.445 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.432 0.000 – 0.789 1.0000 3
Depth 0.416 0.107 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.428 0.000 – 0.784 1.0000 3
Extension 0.009 0.000 – 0.027 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.957 0.900 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.675 0.675 – 0.675 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.194 0.194 – 0.194 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.596 0.397 – 0.857 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.312 0.242 – 0.413 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.481 0.014 – 0.924 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.370 0.244 – 0.543 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.473 0.202 – 0.639 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.464 0.000 – 0.920 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.575 0.329 – 0.918 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.517 0.509 – 0.521 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.526 0.521 – 0.536 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.562 0.331 – 0.964 1.0200 3
Trend 0.472 0.064 – 0.837 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.518 0.000 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.