VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #174 Competition C145 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260817

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-15 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-18 00:15:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
13.2654%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.788
Optimizer
0.788
Portfolio Quality
0.868
Portfolio Risk
0.560
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.791424
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.788091
Correlation Score
0.243575
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.788091

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-15 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.689
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.718123
Exhaustion Penalty
0.028952
After Exhaustion
0.689171
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.689171
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.831894 0.831894 0.241420627
Trend 0.199454 0.795895 0.795895 0.153982334
Liquidity 0.142410 0.923442 0.923442 0.127562481
Market Quality 0.079750 0.538735 0.538735 0.041675091
Risk Control 0.079750 0.514350 0.514350 0.039788733
Rank 0.059836 0.579832 0.579832 0.033654145
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.807921 0.807921 0.046892704
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.292000 0.292000 0.022597374
Factor Total: 0.707573488
Macro Contribution: 0.010549050
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.718123
Historical Raw Score: 0.718123

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 83%
Trend 80%
Liquidity 92%
Market Quality 54%
Risk Control 51%
Relative Strength 81%
Trend Acceleration 29%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 45%
Momentum Exhaustion 59%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.648
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.648145
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.648145
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.648145
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.465670 0.465670 0.135140226
Trend 0.199454 0.473177 0.473177 0.091545869
Liquidity 0.142410 0.980072 0.980072 0.135385239
Market Quality 0.079750 0.859470 0.859470 0.066486288
Risk Control 0.079750 0.896286 0.896286 0.069334274
Rank 0.059836 0.638655 0.638655 0.037068302
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.434986 0.434986 0.025247109
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.637595573
Macro Contribution: 0.010549050
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.648145
Historical Raw Score: 0.648145

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 47%
Trend 47%
Liquidity 98%
Market Quality 86%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 43%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 54%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 22%
Momentum Exhaustion 24%
SHORT BEAT Decision #3
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Extreme
Decision Score
0.753
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.752961
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.752961
Final Selection Score
0.752961
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.000000 1.000000 0.299181440
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.012758 0.987242 0.196909655
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.359436 0.359436 0.028664951
Risk Control 0.079750 0.268747 0.268747 0.021432521
Rank 0.059836 0.075630 0.075630 0.004525418
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.000000 1.000000 0.059836288
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.752960638
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.752961
Historical Raw Score: 0.752961

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
Negative Evidence
! Extreme crash risk
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Weak risk profile
Momentum 0%
Trend 1%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 36%
Risk Control 27%
Relative Strength 0%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 33%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 9%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.351 0.351 – 0.351 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.447 0.000 – 0.856 1.0000 3
Depth 0.416 0.107 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.437 0.000 – 0.841 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.968 0.923 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.673 0.673 – 0.673 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.195 0.195 – 0.195 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.586 0.359 – 0.859 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.297 0.217 – 0.447 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.433 0.000 – 0.832 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.306 0.089 – 0.592 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.431 0.076 – 0.639 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.414 0.000 – 0.808 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.560 0.269 – 0.896 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.505 0.505 – 0.505 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.521 0.513 – 0.538 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.562 0.331 – 0.964 1.0200 3
Trend 0.427 0.013 – 0.796 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.764 0.292 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.